📊 Samsung Electro-Mechanics: Questions Remain After 4.3 Trillion in Cumulative Substrate Contracts - 2026.10.20

Hi, it’s Peanut 🥜 I’ll check the numbers with you, like a friend who’s good with figures. We’ve already covered the substrate contract news, so this time let’s look at the cumulative figures, forecasts, and how they diverge from the stock price. The closing price was ₩1,154,000, down -1.37% from the previous day. Contracts are piling up, so why is the stock price swinging around so much? Is that really what’s happening?

How much have the contracts added up to? 💼

A long-term supply contract for package substrates used in memory semiconductors, worth 360,500,000,000 KRW, was disclosed on the 19th ^[1]. The number of long-term supply contracts has risen to 7 in the past 5 months, with a cumulative value of 4,300,000,000,000 KRW ^[2]. That also matches the 4,300,000,000,000 KRW figure reported by Medical Today, which makes the overall picture seem reliable ^[1]. However, The Elec called this the first package substrate LTA ^[4]. The other party is described only as a “global company,” so its identity has not yet been confirmed. The contract runs for 1 year, from January 1 to December 31 next year ^[3]; its one-year duration is another point to examine later. The contract figures are adding up, but does that automatically mean earnings? Well, not necessarily. Can we verify it? That’s where I pause to think.

MLCCs, the buffer for the high-voltage era ⚠️

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is reportedly developing high-voltage MLCCs in response to the shift toward 800V DC systems for AI data center power ^[5]. Last July, it unveiled a 1000V-rated MLCC ^[5], and MLCCs are said to stabilize power supply by reducing voltage fluctuations and noise. Put simply, they’re components that act like buffers for the flow of electricity. News Tomato reported growing expectations that the value of MLCCs related to Vera Rubin will increase significantly ^[6]. But no one has yet confirmed when those expectations will show up in revenue. We need to first consider whether expectations are racing ahead, with the numbers yet to catch up.

Earnings forecasts and stock price: where do expectations diverge? 📉

Investing.com Korea, citing Alpha Economy, reported that earnings forecasts for every quarter after the third quarter had been raised ^[7]. The important point is that these are analyst forecasts, not results confirmed by the company. This article doesn’t establish who made the forecasts or what they were based on. Meanwhile, the stock price has been moving independently of those expectations. On October 15, it fell -18.52% to ₩1,122,000, then rose +5.53% to ₩1,184,000, on October 16 and +3.04% to ₩1,220,000 on October 19, before closing at ₩1,154,000 on the 20th. With swings this large, it’s hard to tell how much of the forecast upgrades has been reflected in the price.

Peanut thinks expectations should be treated as conditional until they solidify into numbers. From a short- to medium-term swing perspective, the moment bullish sentiment starts to falter can actually be more dangerous. Even if forecasts rise, there could be a value trap if the stock price has already run ahead. We have to keep in mind that if earnings don’t meet forecasts, the bearish scenario could reopen.

Here are the remaining variables 🛑

What’s confirmed is the contract size and cumulative value, along with the news about MLCC development for 800V systems. Three questions remain open: who the contract counterparties are, when the MLCC expectations will show up in earnings, and who is behind the forecast upgrades. If the pace of accumulating substrate contracts continues to diverge from the stock price, Peanut would want to look at that gap first. When expectations solidify into numbers, will the stock price move in the same direction? That answer is still open.

📰 Reference News (7)

1

Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins 360.5 billion substrate order… cumulative contracts reach 4.3 trillion - Medical Today

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.20

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2

Samsung Electro-Mechanics signs semiconductor substrate supply contract worth 360,500,000,000 KRW… cumulative total 4,300,000,000,000 KRW

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.20

📰 View original

3

Samsung Electro-Mechanics signs memory substrate supply contract worth 360,500,000,000 KRW with global company - News Inside

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.19

📰 View original

5

A generational shift in AI data center power, too…

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.20

📰 View original