📉 245,500 Won, the Intersection of Leverage Regulation and the Energy War - 2026.07.20

Today's closing price is 245,500 won. The 250,000 won level has collapsed for the first time in 11 weeks ^[1]. It closed down with a fluctuation rate of -3.73%, and trading volume was recorded at 21,959,142 shares. A polarized trend is noticeable, with foreign net buying at 283.92 billion won and institutional net buying at -359.08 billion won. Is this price truly the bottom? Or is it the beginning of a value trap? Let's break it down coldly with numbers. 📉

Leverage Overheating, Now the Government Steps In

It is already a well-known fact that 5.8 trillion won has flocked to Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix leverage ETFs ^[3]. The sentiment of retail investors who bought more despite a 48% plunge might not be simple speculation but a demand for hedging, yet the risk is clear. The government has announced emergency measures. A regulatory tightening has been previewed, requiring a cash balance of over 30 million won in a stock account when purchasing single-stock leverage products ^[2].

This isn't just a simple regulation. As part of volatility mitigation efforts, if additional measures are introduced while leverage returns are diverging, it could deal a major blow to market sentiment ^[9]. Peanut believes that regulatory risk could further amplify short-term volatility. 🛑

Energy War, a 800 Trillion Won Gamble

The semiconductor supercycle is expected to last until 2030, but the variables are China and energy ^[5]. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are actively recruiting current and former energy officials. This is because energy supply stabilization and cost competitiveness are key in the 800 trillion won semiconductor investment ^[4].

The recruitment of energy personnel will act as a key variable in productivity competition, not just a simple organizational reshuffle. Let's not forget that if yield stabilization and the start of new fab operations are delayed, the supply-demand imbalance could intensify after 2032 ^[5].

Galaxy Unpacked and U.S. Reorganization

At the Galaxy Unpacked event held tomorrow (July 22nd) in London, innovative form factor products such as foldable phones and AI glasses are scheduled to be unveiled ^[6]. The lineup includes the Galaxy Z Fold 8, Flip 8, and Watch 9, which is interpreted as a strategy to optimize the mobile experience to lead the AI era ^[7].

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has carried out an organizational reshuffle, moving its U.S. smartphone and home appliance headquarters to Texas and cutting 739 jobs ^[8]. While this is a move to strengthen local market response and improve cost efficiency, the key point to watch is how they will balance short-term labor cost savings with long-term market share acquisition.

Peanut's View: Don't Forget the Bearish Scenario

Even though earnings have exceeded projections, the stock price is falling ^[10]. This may be a macro warning rather than a betrayal of fundamentals. Now that structural variables such as tightened leverage regulations and energy personnel recruitment dominate the market, it is worth considering as a candidate for profit-taking from a short-to-medium-term swing perspective.

At a PER of 12x and PBR of 1.2, we must be wary of the possibility of a value trap. This is why it's essential to examine the bearish scenario even amidst a bullish atmosphere. 📉

📰 Reference News (10)

1

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Plunge Over 4%... Samsung Electronics Falls Below 250,000 Won for the First Time in 11 Weeks - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.07.20

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2

Chey Tae-won: "A total chaos to get memory" / Koo Ja-cheol: "Korean football is ruined" [Noon Briefing]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.20

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3

“Bought more as it plunged 48%”... 5.8 trillion won from retail investors flocked to ‘Samsung/Hynix’ leverage [The Truth Behind the Numbers] - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.07.19

📰 View original

4

Samsung and SK, staking an 800 trillion won gamble on semiconductors, go all-out to recruit current and former energy officials [Sejong Back-brief] - Herald Economy

헤럴드경제 · 2026.07.19

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5

[Supercycle Watershed] Demand > Supply to persist until 2030... China's AI and low-cost memory strategy are variables | Ajou Business Daily

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.20

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6

[Galaxy Unpacked Preview] "From wide foldable phones to AI glasses"... Samsung's innovations gathered in one place | Ajou Business Daily

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.20

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7

Galaxy Unpacked D-2... What are the key points to watch?

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.20

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8

Samsung Electronics moves U.S. smartphone and home appliance HQ to Texas... Cuts 739 jobs - Chosunbiz

Chosunbiz · 2026.07.20

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9

Samsung and Hynix leverage returns diverge ahead of 'additional measures' - Newsis

뉴시스 · 2026.07.20

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10

[Editorial] “Semiconductors entering a full-scale bear market”... Volatility mitigation measures must be supplemented

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.20

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