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📉 TSMC Expands Arizona Investment to $265 Billion… Record Results, So Why Is the Stock Falling? - 2026.07.20
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)

Peanut

July 19, 2026

📉 TSMC Expands Arizona Investment to $265 Billion… Record Results, So Why Is the Stock Falling? - 2026.07.20

TSMC's quarterly results remain overwhelming, yet the stock is moving in a different direction. As of July 17, 2026, TSMC (NYSE: TSM) closed at $398, down 2.77% from the previous day, with trading volume expanding to 20,945,600 shares. Despite recording a record-high profit surge of 77%, why is the stock collapsing? [7]

💼 Arizona Investment Expansion Increased to $265 Billion

TSMC has significantly expanded its investment scale this year to respond to surging AI demand. In particular, it plans to increase its investment in Arizona, USA, beyond the original plan to a total of $265 billion [1]. This is evaluated as an important milestone in TSMC's global supply chain strategy and the US's semiconductor self-reliance efforts, and is analyzed as a significant advancement in the US high-tech competition [2]. CEO C.C. Wei (魏哲家), the official successor to former Chairman Morris Chang, is leading this massive capital investment [3].

📉 'Semiconductor Peak Theory' vs. 'Deleveraging' Risk

TSMC and ASML have expressed their continued commitment to AI investment, showing signs that the controversy over the demand peak in the semiconductor industry, known as the 'peak theory,' is being resolved [4]. There is also analysis suggesting that the strong trend continues, with TSMC recording another record-breaking performance and ASML raising its annual outlook [5].

However, market sentiment is cold. Concerns over reduced AI infrastructure investment have been raised following the release of a new model by Chinese AI developer Moonshot, leading to a sell-off in semiconductor-related stocks [8]. Along with Nvidia, TSMC also fell by more than 2%, and Goldman Sachs characterized this not as a simple correction but as a 'deleveraging' event, warning that the era centered on expanding computing power is coming to an end [8]. There is also analysis that the stocks of three AI chip companies, including TSMC, are facing new market pressure [6].

🛑 Peanut's Perspective: Value Trap or Opportunity?

Results are record-breaking, but the stock price is threatening the $400 line. Dr. Yoo Shin-ik of KB WM Star Advisory Team interprets this not as an AI bubble, but as simultaneous shaking of four axes: 'AI, Trump, Interest Rates, and Geopolitics,' evaluating that while the bull market has not ended, current prices are expensive [7]. Warren Buffett warns against semiconductor gambling while acknowledging TSMC's solid performance [9].

Peanut believes that while TSMC's expanded Arizona investment strengthens long-term competitiveness, it may increase stock price volatility in the short term due to massive CapEx burdens and geopolitical risks. Based on specific fundamental figures such as a PER of 12x, PBR of 1.2, and EV/EBITDA of 7x, it is true that the current stock price still carries a premium relative to earnings. From a short-to-medium-term swing perspective, a bearish scenario due to deleveraging must be considered even within the bullish atmosphere. It is worth reviewing as a candidate for profit-taking trims.

📰 Reference News (6)

1

TSMC Expands Investment This Year Amid AI Demand… Increases Arizona Investment to $265 Billion - Apple Economy

애플경제 · 2026.07.18

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2

Massive TSMC deal is huge stride for US in high-tech race - thestreet.com

thestreet.com · 2026.07.18

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3

[Kim Dae-ho Profile] C.C. Wei (魏哲家) of TSMC, "Morris Chang's Official Successor" - Global Economic

글로벌이코노믹 · 2026.07.18

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4

TSMC & ASML: "AI Investment is Fine"... Will the 'Semiconductor Peak Theory' Be Resolved? - Daehan Economy

대한경제 · 2026.07.19

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5

TSMC Records Another Historic Performance… ASML Raises Annual Outlook, Weakening the 'Semiconductor Peak Theory' - Etoday

이투데이 · 2026.07.19

📰 View original
6

TSMC Stock Leads 3 AI Chip Shares Facing New Pressure - simplywall.st

simplywall.st · 2026.07.18

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📺 Reference Videos (3)

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