💼 POSCO Holdings, Value Trap Risks Behind the Rosy Vision - 2026.07.22

Hello, this is Peanut, here to scrutinize the valuation numbers. POSCO Holdings closed at 302,000 KRW (-0.33%) today; it was a day where the streak of net buying by foreign investors stood out amidst the market's wait-and-see stance ^[1].

💼 Chairman Jang In-hwa's debut, will it really be proven by the numbers?

Chairman Jang In-hwa recently appeared on a broadcast to present the POSCO Group's vision ^[5]. He emphasized the indispensability of controlling the entire supply chain, from raw material procurement to final component production. Furthermore, the market appears to be catching its breath due to expectations for IR activities ^[4]. However, this is where I raise questions from a conservative fundamental perspective. Will this massive vertical integration story directly lead to improvements in EV/EBITDA or profit margins right away? While the long-term direction is excellent, I doubt whether it can be objectively verified that it will boost earnings per share (EPS) right now.

📈 Inflow of smart money, an opportunity for a short-term swing?

In terms of supply and demand, some quite interesting data is being captured. Top 1% high-yield investors on Mirae Asset Securities have been heavily net buying POSCO Holdings for two consecutive days ^[2]. Foreign investors have also been pouring funds into the stock for 5 consecutive days ^[1]. Additionally, Hana Securities analyst Park Sung-bong selected this stock as a top pick for the steel and metal sector in the second half of the year ^[3]. It is true that the bullish atmosphere is intensifying. However, from a short-to-medium-term swing perspective, one must not forget that institutional selling has been quite aggressive. On July 22nd alone, institutions net sold 12.37 billion KRW.

⚠️ Value trap risks hidden within the bullish trend

When everyone is talking about a rosy future, it is essential to touch upon the bearish scenario at least once. I believe there is a risk of falling into a short-term value trap until the current expectations are fully proven by actual quarterly performance numbers. There remains a process of verifying whether the vision presented by the company and the positive outlook for the second half of the year by securities firms ^[3] will actually lead to an increase in free cash flow (FCF). The speed of recovery in the core steel business is a key variable, and it is difficult to justify a high valuation multiple based solely on vague expectations. Will it be able to demonstrate the level of profit capacity the market expects in the next earnings release?

📰 Reference News (4)

1

[Intraday Supply/Demand Capture] POSCO Holdings, foreign investors' 5-day consecutive net buying streak... Stock price +2.31% - Newspim

뉴스핌 · 2026.07.22

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3

"Time to grab undervalued neglected stocks"... Second half picks by best analysts

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.21

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4

[Closing Analysis] POSCO Holdings, slight rise amidst wait-and-see... IR expectation 'catching breath' : Corporate Stock Information - Jaekyung Ilbo

재경일보 · 2026.07.21

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

5

YouTube

If there were no steel, there would be no industrial revolution; the limits of humanity determined by materials

▶삼프로TV 3PROTV·2026.07.21