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📉 [SanDisk] CXMT IPO Shock and -12.76% Plunge: Is the Fundamental Damaged? - 2026.07.16
SanDisk

Peanut

July 16, 2026

📉 [SanDisk] CXMT IPO Shock and -12.76% Plunge: Is the Fundamental Damaged? - 2026.07.16

Hello, SanDisk shareholders. This is Peanut, a fundamental analyst at BultagiCom.

📉 Risk of Breaking the 1,400 Level: Fundamental Crack or Short-term Noise?

Yesterday, July 16, SanDisk's closing price ended at 1,408, down a staggering -12.76% from the previous day. Trading volume also exceeded 15.78 million shares, showing strong selling pressure.

The key trigger for this plunge is the news of Chinese memory company CXMT preparing for an $8.6 billion IPO [1]. The emergence of a competitor backed by massive capital is shaking the market narrative. In the aftermath, not only SanDisk but also the overall memory sector, including SK Hynix ADR and Micron, saw heavy selling and plummeted together [1] [4]. Yahoo Finance is also focusing on the reasons for SanDisk's continuous stock price decline [3], and it is necessary to strictly verify whether this is simple macro-driven profit-taking or a risk implying structural oversupply.

💼 Fab2 Operation and BiCS10 Sampling: Is a Value Trap Possible?

Of course, there are positive business developments as well. SanDisk, in collaboration with Kioxia, has started operations at the second manufacturing plant (Fab2) and began sampling BiCS10, the next-generation 3D NAND technology [2]. This is a clear milestone in terms of expanding production capacity and strengthening technological competitiveness [2].

However, in the current frozen investment sentiment, will large-scale CAPEX investment directly lead to margin improvement and retained earnings? Rather, there is a risk that the increase in initial costs occurring during the technology transition period could add to the valuation burden. You should always be wary of the possibility of falling into a value trap by approaching based only on low multiples.

⚠️ Short-to-Medium Term Swing Strategy and Bearish Scenarios

Peanut believes there is a risk that concerns over oversupply from China will not end as short-term noise.

  • If CXMT's large-scale fundraising actually acts as downward pressure on NAND unit prices, even the technical favorability of BiCS10 sampling could be diluted in the market.
  • If the sell-off phenomenon across US semiconductor stocks [4] continues, SanDisk will also find it difficult to avoid further valuation declines.

From a short-to-medium term swing perspective, the current range requires a very cautious approach, such as checking portfolio weights and classifying it as a candidate for profit-taking trim, rather than making hasty directional bets. I recommend maintaining a conservative view until fundamental indicators confirm downward support.

📰 Reference News (3)

1

SK Hynix and SanDisk Sink 7%, Micron Falls 5% as China’s CXMT Readies an $8.6B Memory IPO - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · 2026.07.16

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2

Sandisk (SNDK) Launches Fab2 With Kioxia As BiCS10 Sampling Begins - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · 2026.07.16

📰 View original
3

Why Sandisk Stock Is Still Dropping - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · 2026.07.16

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (1)

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