🔗 Tesla: A Day When Earnings Hopes Overlapped with Merger Preparations - 2026.10.20

Hi, it’s Dotori. Let’s start with the big picture again today 🌰 The Tesla story has spread quite a bit beyond the Roadster.

Stock Movement and Earnings Hopes

Yesterday, Tesla closed at $368.09, posting a +3.77% gain. That means it rebounded from $354.72 the day before. Against this backdrop, an Investopedia article looked at how much the stock might move after the earnings announcement ^[1]. But this is a third-party forecast about the range of market expectations. It’s not something the company has confirmed, and the outcome hasn’t been decided.

The SpaceX Merger: The Stakes Are Rising

Citing Tesla’s proxy statement, Electrek reported that the board appears to be preparing for a merger with SpaceX ^[2]. The key word here is “preparing.” It doesn’t mean a merger has been finalized, and the specific terms can’t be confirmed from the headline alone. In a conversation with Emmet Peppers, Musk also said he believes Tesla needs more than outstanding hardware and manufacturing capabilities—and should therefore merge with SpaceX ^[3]. That’s Musk’s own view. Structurally, the two developments seem to point in the same direction. Still, it’s too early to say they’re on the same track.

Optimus and Roadster: Product News

According to a video citing a supplier’s IPO filing, the Optimus V3 hardware is “essentially frozen” ^[4]. Production was reported to have reached several hundred units per week. Here’s the key connection: Optimus is the face of Tesla’s robotics business, so news that its hardware is fixed can be read as a sign that one stage of mass-production preparation is complete. Still, remember that this report relies on material from a supplier.

The Roadster deposit is also drawing attention. A video creator said the deposit for the Thrust trim was announced at 350,000,000 KRW, and called it excessive, noting that a typical deposit is around 10% of a vehicle’s price ^[5]. Wow, the number does look striking at first glance. But “10% of the vehicle’s price” is the video creator’s point of comparison, not a term Tesla has announced.

Domestic Factors and Open Questions

The temporary license plate issue has resurfaced in South Korea. A video explained that temporary license plates may become available for vehicle deliveries following a transport accident, and also mentioned that the matter was reviewed during a National Assembly audit ^[6]. Exactly when and how vehicles will be delivered remains an open question.

To sum up, three uncertainties remain: whether the stock will move within the range of third-party forecasts after the earnings announcement, what terms will emerge from the merger discussions following the proxy statement, and how the pace of Optimus V3 mass production and demand for Roadster reservations will develop. What I’m most curious about is whether robots, space, and electric vehicles are interlocking gears. Dotori thinks this connection still looks relevant, but until it’s confirmed, it’s best treated as a hypothesis. 🤔