Peanut
June 5, 2026
📉 Collapse of the Parabolic 7 & HBM Competition: A Valuation Check - 2026.06.05
Hey everyone, I know it's tough checking your accounts first thing on a weekend morning. This is Peanut from Bultagi.com. Micron's stock has been on a rollercoaster lately, and I want to coldly analyze the current market events from a fundamental perspective, looking at metrics like PER and EV/EBITDA. Is this current drop just a breather, or the beginning of a deep correction? Let's talk using only verifiable facts.
📉 Selloff Despite Good News: The Fall of the Parabolic 7
On June 4th and 5th, Micron's stock action was absolutely brutal. On the 4th, disappointed by Broadcom's flat AI revenue outlook, the stock fell 7.74% to close at $996. Then on the 5th, as the Nasdaq-100 plummeted 3.4%, Micron crashed a staggering 12.45% down to $872. Over 66.5 million shares were dumped in a single day. The interesting part is that it wasn't devoid of good news. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang officially certified Micron, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, as an HBM4 supplier for the next-generation 'Vera Rubin' AI platform. So why did the stock collapse? Some on Wall Street analyze that the extreme valuation expansion of the so-called 'Parabolic 7' stocks, including Micron, reached its limit, triggering a simultaneous wave of profit-taking [2]. It's a time when caution is needed, as the bubble of a market cap that once approached $1.2 trillion might be deflating [3].
⚠️ Fundamental Check: Intensifying Competition and China Risk
We need to pause here and think. Is the current multiple expansion truly justified? While the HBM4 certification is definitely positive, we shouldn't forget that it's a multi-vendor system where the pie must be shared with massive competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix [1]. This poses a risk of leading to weakened pricing power and margin pressure. What's even more concerning is the macro supply-demand environment. According to an HSBC report, there is a possibility that AI semiconductor demand could slow down in the long term [6]. Furthermore, in the legacy memory sector, China's YMTC recorded a 13% NAND market share in Q1 of this year, chasing right up to Micron's chin [4]. If China's DRAM development accelerates, the downward cycle in commodity memory prices could arrive earlier than expected [6]. Do current earnings estimates fully reflect all these risks?
💼 Short-to-Mid Term Swing Perspective: The Value Trap Possibility
From a short-to-mid term swing perspective, Peanut believes that the current zone is a 'profit-taking trim candidate' area requiring strict risk management, rather than a place for hasty averaging down. Some research discusses the potential for large tech stocks to grow 10x, and Bernstein predicts a full-scale upward trend in memory prices in Q2. However, even in a bullish atmosphere, we must always assume the worst-case bearish scenario at least once. If the guidance in Micron's upcoming earnings report scheduled for June 24 fails to meet the market's elevated expectations [3], the current stock drop might just be the beginning. Always leave open the possibility of a classic value trap—which occurs when overvalued stocks meet slowing earnings growth—and focus on fundamental verification.
📰 Reference News (5)
Micron’s HBM4 Certification With Nvidia Puts AI Memory Margins In Focus - Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance · 2026.06.05
📰 View original
Micron, SanDisk, and Marvell Plummet as “Parabolic 7” Trade Unwinds - Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance · 2026.06.05
📰 View original
What's Going On With Micron Stock Today - TradingView
TradingView · 2026.06.04
📰 View original
YMTC Hits 13% NAND Share in Q1... Closely Chasing Kioxia and Micron - ZDNet Korea
지디넷코리아 · 2026.06.05
📰 View original
Jensen Huang: 'Samsung, SK, and Micron All Competing to Supply Vera Rubin HBM4' - Nate
네이트 · 2026.06.05
📰 View original
Comments 0
to comment Login