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October 31, 2026
🌰 Samsung SDI: Why ESS Is Holding Up Even as BMW Shipments Slow - 2026.10.31
Hi, it’s Dotori. 🌰 Today, I’m pulling out the value-chain board and taking a look at Samsung SDI.
Let’s start with the big picture 🔗
Things have been quiet lately on the EV battery front. According to a Hana Securities report, BMW battery shipments have slowed [1]. But the same report says quarterly ESS revenue rose 39%, and the company posted a profit for the second consecutive quarter in Q3 [1]. This is the key connection: ESS is supporting the earnings floor as EV volumes fluctuate. In other words, they haven’t put all their eggs in one basket.
How ESS is holding up ⚙️
The picture becomes clearer when you compare the three battery makers. According to an article, SK On was the only one in the red, and the article cited whether a company had diversified its revenue sources through ESS as one factor behind the difference [3]. The same article says Samsung SDI’s battery division posted a profit of 361,900,000,000 KRW [3]. Looking one step deeper, relying on a single battery product can leave a business vulnerable, so it matters whether a second gear, such as ESS, is turning alongside it. It’s like a relay race: even when the runner changes, the baton keeps moving.
60GWh in the U.S.—still a gap to fill 🏭
After acquiring a stake in General Motors in the U.S., Samsung SDI is reportedly pursuing plans to convert the Synergy Cells battery plant into an ESS production hub [2]. But the volume from the Synergy Cells plant is still under discussion out of the 60GWh in ESS orders [2]. The key point is that a gap remains, even though the number looks large. There’s one more detail about the factory: reportedly, around 2000 inspection criteria are applied to each battery, with AI and X-rays used to catch tiny defects in advance [4]. This is a supporting factor to watch when assessing whether quality can keep pace as production ramps up.
If I were ranking the value-chain factors, I’d put ESS orders and the shift to profitability first, the outcome of negotiations over Synergy Cells volumes second, and production quality control third. As long as the ESS link remains intact, I think this structure is still viable.
The stock and securities firms’ views 📚
The stock closed at ₩535,000 on October 30, down -0.74% from the previous day [5]. Looking at the recent trend, it rose from ₩513,000, on October 27 to ₩533,000, on October 28 and ₩539,000 on October 29, before slipping a little. It looks like a breather after a short rebound. Still, that’s just price action, and I think it’s too early to treat it as evidence of where the stock is headed.
We should also consider what securities firms are saying. Mirae Asset Securities maintained its top pick view on the secondary-battery sector, citing a significantly higher target price for Samsung SDI, operating profit for 2028, and a 2026 target for new ESS orders [6]. This is the firm’s analysis and opinion, not a plan confirmed by the company. Korea Investment & Securities’ Hot Report also highlighted an earnings surprise and expectations for North American ESS as key points [7]. It’s clear expectations are high, but how much of that translates into actual numbers is another question.
In the end, there are two things I’m wondering about. Will the 60GWh gap be filled, turning ESS expectations into quarterly results? And will the expectations laid out by securities firms align with the actual order trend? 🤔 I haven’t settled on an answer yet, either.
📰 Reference News (6)
Samsung SDI’s BMW Battery Shipments Slow, but ESS Revenue Rises 39% for the Quarter
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.31
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The Gap in Samsung SDI’s 60GWh ESS Orders… U.S. Synergy Cells Volume Still Under Discussion
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.30
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SK On Is the Only One in the Red Among Three Battery Makers… Could ESS Be a Way Forward?
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.31
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Samsung SDI Applies 2000 Inspection Criteria to Each Battery⋯AI and X-rays Catch Defects in Advance - M Today
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.31
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Samsung SDI Stock Rises from 480,000 KRW to 530,000 KRW in Five Trading Days
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.31
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Mirae Asset Securities Recommends Buying 25 Stocks, Including HD Hyundai Marine Solution, in the Fifth Week of October
네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.31
📰 View original
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