💼 Domestic SMR Site Confirmation and Order Rally, But Is the Valuation Safe? - 2026.06.18

Hello, fans. This is Peanut, looking at the bare face of companies through numbers.

There has been a continuous flow of flashy news surrounding Doosan Enerbility recently. But as always, we must ask a cold question. Can these favorable factors justify the current stock multiple. Let's break it down one by one from a fundamental perspective.

💼 The Stage is Set at Home, The Reality of SMRs and Large Nuclear Plants

In accordance with the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, the government selected Yeongdeok, North Gyeongsang Province, as the candidate site for two new large nuclear power plants, and Gijang, Busan, as the candidate site for the first domestic SMR ^[1]. Two 1.4GW large nuclear power plants are scheduled to be completed in Yeongdeok between 2037 and 2038, and a 0.7GW SMR is scheduled to be completed in Gijang in 2035 ^[1].

Doosan Enerbility has invested 806.8 billion won in its Changwon plant to build a dedicated SMR factory ^[4]. The plan is to secure a production system capable of manufacturing about 20 SMRs per year by 2031 ^[4], and it seems highly likely that they will be in charge of supplying main equipment once the construction of the first domestic SMR begins in earnest. But we need to pause and think here. With a completion target of 2035, there is a significant time lag before actual revenue recognition and cash flow generation. When converting this distant future expected return into present value, could the current valuation be overshooting.

💼 Endless Overseas Orders, Are the Margins Verifiable

The news from overseas is also spectacular. Marking the one-year anniversary of the main contract for the Dukovany nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic, the CEO of KHNP is inspecting the local Doosan Skoda Power production facility and checking the procurement of core equipment ^[2]. In addition, an EPC contract for the Duqm gas combined cycle power plant worth 528.9 billion won was signed in Oman ^[3], and there is news of hitting an SMR order jackpot in Sweden in collaboration with Rolls-Royce ^[6].

The order backlog is certainly solidifying. However, the top-line order volume does not directly translate into the bottom-line profit. Considering raw material price volatility and local EPC risks, a meticulous check is needed on exactly how much these projects will contribute to EV/EBITDA.

⚠️ Shadows Behind the Bull Market, Value Trap Warning

Even in a bullish atmosphere full of good news, we must check the bearish scenario. Although they are expanding businesses such as power generation facilities and offshore wind power, there is an analysis that the stock price is showing weakness recently due to the emergence of profit-taking volumes ^[5].

In fact, as of June 18, Doosan Enerbility's closing price was 100,000 won, down 3.10% from the previous day. What is particularly noteworthy is the supply and demand. On this day alone, foreigners net sold about 129.2 billion won, and institutions net sold about 45.1 billion won, pouring out massive volumes. If you are an investor approaching from a short-to-medium swing perspective, you should ponder the meaning of this massive selling pressure rather than getting drunk on flashy news.

Peanut believes there is a risk that the current section will enter the candidate group for short-term profit-taking trimming. If rosy prospects are pre-reflected and earnings visibility is not supported, it can fall into a typical value trap. We must always remember that indicators like PER or PBR can instantly enter an overvaluation territory if future earnings estimates are downgraded.

📰 Reference News (5)

1

New Large Nuclear Plant to be Built in Yeongdeok, Gyeongbuk, and Korea's First SMR in Gijang, Busan

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.17

📰 View original

2

KHNP CEO Kim Hoe-chun Heads to Czech Republic for 1st Anniversary of Contract... "Implementing a Successful Best Practice"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original

3

Doosan Enerbility Wins 530 Billion Won Order for Duqm Combined Cycle Power Plant in Oman

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original

4

Sites Confirmed for 'Large Nuclear Plant & SMR'... Will It Bring an '800 Billion Won Factory Investment' Opportunity for Doosan Enerbility? - Newsis

뉴시스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original

5

Global Attention on Nuclear Engineering... KEPCO E&C Becomes a Core Base for Energy Security

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.18

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (1)

6

YouTube

🚀 [Hidden Global] Sweden SMR Order Jackpot, Doosan Enerbility 'Beaming' | Market Signal (20260617)

▶이데일리TV·2026.06.17