💼 [BultagiCom] Growing Shareholder Dissatisfaction Ahead of Q2 Earnings, Checking Tesla's Valuation - 2026.07.17

Hi, I'm Reporter Peanut from BultagiCom.

Yesterday, July 17, Tesla closed at 381 dollars, down 2.54% from the previous day, with a trading volume of approximately 2,749 million shares. Despite the recent bullish market sentiment, the stock has recorded weekly losses and is showing increased volatility. It's time to coolly assess the fundamentals to see if the current valuation can be justified. The market always rises on expectations, but eventually, it collapses if it cannot be proven with numbers.

📉 Q2 Earnings Release and Mounting Pressure from Shareholders

The Q2 earnings release is scheduled for July 22 (early morning of the 23rd in KST) ^[3]. However, the atmosphere in the market is turning somewhat cold ahead of the announcement. Retail investors and major shareholders are ramping up the pressure on CEO Elon Musk, demanding strong explanations for the failure to meet previously set goals ^[2].

The criticism regarding the missed Robotaxi targets is particularly painful ^[1]. Tesla's current high PER and EV/EBITDA multiples are premium figures that pre-reflect the perfect commercialization of Robotaxis and FSD. But if key goals continue to be delayed, can these high multiples be maintained? If market expectations are not converted into verifiable earnings figures, there is a risk of falling into a classic value trap. The key will be how management explains this valuation gap in next week's earnings call.

⚠️ Checking H2 Bearish Scenarios and Regulatory Risks

While bulls paint a rosy future, we must examine the bearish scenarios. Forbes specifically pointed out negative outlooks and the background for a potential decline in Tesla's stock price in the second half of 2026 ^[4]. With uncertainties in the macro environment and concerns over slowing EV demand still lingering, these warnings cannot be taken lightly.

Regulatory pressure is another risk factor undermining fundamentals. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) firmly rejected Tesla's request to avoid a recall related to headlight compliance issues ^[5]. These quality and safety regulatory issues go beyond simple short-term noise and could lead to increased costs for large-scale recalls and damage to operating profit margins (OPM). For investors who look closely at financial statements, this will certainly act as a valuation discount factor.

💼 Texas Infrastructure, AI5 Chips, and the Weight of CAPEX

Of course, there is technical progress from a long-term perspective. News has broken that Tesla's AI5 Optimus chip has finally entered the mass production stage ^[6]. Additionally, at Giga Texas, the construction of Tesla's next-generation growth engines—such as the Optimus humanoid robot factory, Cortex AI infrastructure, and Cybercab preparations—is taking concrete shape on-site ^[7].

However, from the perspective of an analyst running financial models, an important question must be asked here. What will be the short-term impact on Free Cash Flow (FCF) from the massive Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) required for this large-scale infrastructure investment and chip mass production? While these are investments to create future cash cows, we must not overlook the risk that massive spending could eat into immediate EPS growth. A thorough vigilance is needed on how successful the tightrope walk between investing for long-term growth and defending short-term profitability will be.

🛑 Conclusion and Valuation Strategy

Peanut believes that Tesla's current stock price pre-reflects excessive expectations compared to its fundamentals, making it a candidate for short-term profit-taking.

While the blueprints for future robotics and AI are important, defending specific automotive margins in next week's earnings and management's realistic answers to shareholder dissatisfaction are much more critical. Rather than jumping on blind expectations, approaching from the bottom of conservatively calculated PBR and PER bands might be a way to manage risk. It would be rational to update valuation models after checking the specific EPS and Free Cash Flow figures in next week's earnings report.