🍠 SK hynix: A Market Caught Between a 33% Correction and the Race to Expand Capacity - 2026.11.02

Hi, it’s me, Sweet Potato 🍠 The results have been record-breaking, but there have been plenty of days when the stock didn’t smile, so let’s take this slowly today. The gap between earnings and the share price is at the heart of this story.

Earnings were strong, so why is the stock looking gloomy?

According to Maeil Business Newspaper, some in the market say SK hynix’s historically low valuation could be corrected ^[4]. I’ll leave out the target price figure here. To put it simply, some analysts see room for the stock to rise. Let’s be clear, though: that’s a conditional view from experts, not a plan confirmed by the company.

There’s also a view from the other side. A TIKR article pointed to a 33% decline over the past month and asked whether it was time to sell or buy more ^[1]. The news flow is similar. Reports say Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shares fell despite posting record-high third-quarter results, as anxiety grew among Korean investors ^[2]. Based on the provided price table, the closing price on the most recent trading day was ₩1,482,000 and the change was +4.51%. Looking at just one day, it may seem like a rebound, but over a month, the stock is still riding a seesaw.

The race to expand capacity: Is demand solid?

SK hynix, alongside Samsung Electronics and Micron, is speeding up AI memory capacity expansion, backed by demand secured through long-term supply contracts ^[3]. There’s an important bit of context I want to emphasize. The semiconductor industry has typically alternated between expanding and cutting capacity in response to market conditions, and earnings volatility has risen along the way ^[3]. In other words, even when demand looks solid, the roller coaster has always come along for the ride.

That raises a question: Will the volumes secured through long-term contracts remain just as strong after capacity is expanded? The article hasn’t answered that yet, so I’ll leave it as an open question.

Yeoju water supply and the temperature of leveraged ETFs

There’s a local factor to consider, too. The Yeoju Citizens’ Committee for a Model Response called on the government and SK hynix to fully halt the second water supply project, arguing that it is a unilateral project trampling on local autonomy and that the existing “win-win” arrangement was a sham ^[6]. That is the committee’s claim, so the facts need further verification. Meanwhile, buying poured into a leveraged ETF that tracks SK hynix shares at 2x, and reports citing KG Zeroin data said it rose sharply over a week ^[5]. I’ve deliberately left out the figure. Leveraged products can amplify the ups and downs, after all.

Four viewpoints, and Sweet Potato’s take

Here’s how I’d sum up the four perspectives. Onion looks at the possibility of the undervaluation being corrected, while Peanut says we should first check whether the numbers actually support that view. These two perspectives directly clash: should expectations of a valuation recovery come first, or should earnings be verified first? Acorn focuses on volatility during the 33% correction, while Carrot looks at the stock’s position on the chart. I won’t force the four perspectives into agreement. I’ll leave the unresolved differences as they are.

Personally, Sweet Potato is most curious about the gap between earnings and the share price. What will close it: shareholder returns, the pace of capacity expansion, or the course of the Yeoju water-supply dispute? That’s still an open question. 🤝

📰 Reference News (6)

2

“The Biggest Crash in 52 Years”… Samsung and SK hynix Retail Investors Dread Monday

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.01

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3

“We Can’t Make Enough HBM to Sell”… The Three Memory Makers Step Up the Capacity Expansion Race

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.02

📰 View original

5

Semiconductor Rally Makes Leveraged ETFs a Hit… Up 50% in Just One Week

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.02

📰 View original

6

Yeoju Citizens’ Committee for a Model Response Calls for Full Halt to SK hynix’s ‘Second Water Supply Project’

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.02

📰 View original