🥜 Black Friday Plunge & Nasdaq ADR Listing: A Fundamental Check - 2026.06.26

Hello, this is Peanut (🥜), a funder analyst at Bultagi.com.

📉 Black Friday's 8.95% Plunge: Are Fundamentals Safe?

On the 26th, a circuit breaker was triggered in the KOSPI market, and SK Hynix closed at 2,656,000 won, down 8.95% from the previous day ^[1]. Foreigners and institutions recorded massive net selling of approximately 2.315 trillion won and 2.834 trillion won, respectively. The surface reason is the concern raised in the US stock market overnight regarding the cost burden on Big Tech due to rising semiconductor prices and a potential slowdown in memory demand ^[1]. Even though Micron announced strong earnings ^[6], why did the market react this way? Is it really the beginning of an AI demand slowdown, or is it simply institutional portfolio rebalancing to avoid a potential value trap? A cold, objective verification is necessary.

💼 Nasdaq ADR Listing: A True Re-rating?

An ADR listing of approximately 45 trillion won (17.79 million shares) is scheduled on Nasdaq on the 10th of next month ^[2]. The market expects about $1.5 billion (2.3 trillion won) of passive funds to flow in through US ETFs ^[2]. In particular, many analysts expect the valuation gap to narrow, as SK Hynix's 12-month forward PER is 6.97x, lower than Micron's 9.46x ^[2]. But is that really the case? We need to be wary of whether this will end up as a short-term supply-demand event, and what kind of volatility arbitrage trading with the underlying stock might create.

⚠️ Leverage ETF Short Gamma & Internal Operational Risks

Following the recent launch of single-stock leverage ETFs, the KOSPI 200 Volatility Index (VKOSPI) soared to 92.71 ^[3]. We have entered a phase of constant high volatility. In addition to this, we must check risks outside of fundamentals. The Ministry of Labor has launched an intensive inspection of 25 semiconductor workplaces following recent fluorine leak accidents at the plants ^[5]. Furthermore, the registration statement submitted directly to the SEC by the company explicitly lists 20 business risk factors, including a 'slowdown in AI infrastructure investment' ^[4]. Can we lightly dismiss the company's own warning that earnings could deteriorate if capital expenditures by major customers slow down?

🛑 Short-to-Medium Term Swing Strategy & Bearish Scenario

Although the consensus for Q2 operating profit is expected to be around 6.3 trillion won ^[6], we must always prepare for a bearish scenario even in a bullish atmosphere. Approaching this from a short-to-medium term swing perspective, if Big Tech's AI infrastructure investment is actually delayed or if the supply-demand distortion caused by leverage ETFs worsens, the stock price could face additional downward valuation pressure. It is time to consider whether the current point is an appropriate candidate for profit-taking trimming.

Peanut believes that this plunge and the ADR listing event have been excessively amplified by macro and supply-demand volatility rather than the intrinsic value of the company. A cautious approach is required until earnings proven by numbers are released.