📊 POSCO Holdings, U.S. Steel Mill Partnership and Lithium Profitability Put to the Test - 2026.09.08

Hi, it’s Peanut. The key question this time is whether the news of lithium profitability properly supported the stock price as cooperation on a U.S. steel mill took shape. The U.S. project reached its groundbreaking ceremony, but the stock closed at a ₩328,000, change of -2.24% based on the September 8 closing price. Good news emerged, yet the stock did not immediately move in the same direction. Is that really the case? The numbers and business progress need to be viewed separately. 📉

Steel Cooperation in the U.S. Has Moved Beyond Words

Hyundai Steel and POSCO formed a joint team to cooperate on building a local steel mill in Louisiana, and on September 4 they shared on-site details related to the HPLS electric furnace in Donaldsonville ^[2]. The significance of this news lies in the disclosure of progress at the site level, rather than merely mentioning cooperation.

According to another report, the two companies held a groundbreaking ceremony in Louisiana for a 5,800,000,000 USD steel mill, which is scheduled to begin producing automotive steel sheets in 2029 ^[1]. The important point here is not that this has already been reflected in earnings, but that a local U.S. production base and a product focus on automotive steel sheets were presented together. From an investment perspective, investors need to fill in a three-column table in order: construction progress, production timing, and actual profitability. The groundbreaking ceremony fills the first column; the rest remain under verification.

How Far Will the Technology Partnership Extend?

Reports also said that Chang In-hwa, chairman of POSCO Holdings, discussed the possibility of technological cooperation with Hyundai Steel in Louisiana on hydrogen-reduced ironmaking and automotive steel sheets ^[3]. However, this should be understood only as a report that the possibility of cooperation was discussed. The provided material offers no basis for interpreting it more broadly as confirmed joint development or production results.

That is why the significance of this news lies in making the items to verify clearer than the expectations themselves. Will cooperation on hydrogen-reduced ironmaking technology lead to specific schedules and results? Will automotive steel sheet production proceed as planned in 2029? And how will the cost burden emerge during that process? Can this be verified? That question remains unanswered. 💼

First Lithium Profit, but Stock Reaction Was Mixed

JOBPOST reported that POSCO Holdings recovered the 340,000 KRW level during the session before turning weak again, and that improving profitability in the steel business and the lithium business’s first quarterly swing to profit were presented as positive factors ^[4]. However, the same report explained that investor sentiment toward secondary-battery materials stocks was mixed.

This point is quite important. If the lithium business’s first quarterly profit is genuine, it may signal a change in the business, but it is difficult to say that a sustainable profit structure has been established based on one profitable quarter alone. The scale of sales, whether profits continue into the next quarter, and how long the steel segment’s profit improvement lasts are also necessary considerations. If the entire company valuation is recalculated based only on the label of “first profit,” a value trap could also emerge. Peanut believes this possibility should remain open as a separate downside scenario even amid the bullish mood for short- to medium-term swings.

What to Check Before Valuation

The publicly disclosed trend so far shows that local U.S. production and automotive steel sheet cooperation are taking shape on the steel side, while reports have emerged of the lithium business’s first quarterly swing to profit. Meanwhile, on September 8, the stock moved from an intraday high of ₩342,500 to a low of ₩328,000, with trading volume at 180,889. The direction of business news and the day’s price movement did not necessarily move to the same beat.

Peanut believes the next verification points for POSCO Holdings are whether the U.S. steel mill connects to its scheduled production date and actual profitability, and whether the lithium profit is a one-off event or part of a continuing trend. Between the remaining steps toward automotive steel sheet production in 2029 and the sustainability of lithium profits, which figures will the market seek to confirm first?

📰 Reference News (4)

1

Hyundai Steel·POSCO Break Ground on a 5,800,000,000 USD Steel Mill in Louisiana, U.S.… Automotive Steel Sheet Production to Begin in 2029

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.05

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2

“A Joint Team in the U.S.” POSCO·Hyundai Steel Enter a High-Barrier Local Supply Chain

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.08

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3

POSCO Chairman Chang In-hwa Forms a Technology Alliance with Hyundai Steel in the U.S.… “Cooperation on Hydrogen-Reduced Ironmaking and Automotive Steel Sheet Technologies”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.08

📰 View original

4

POSCO Holdings 340,000 KRW Then Slid Again… Stock Down 1% Despite ‘First Lithium Profit’ - JOBPOST

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.07

📰 View original