📊 SK hynix, Diverging Calculations on Interest Rates and Memory Supply-Demand - 2026.09.12

Hi, it’s Goguma. The key issue for SK hynix right now is that memory supply and demand remain tight, while interpretations of interest rates and the share price are splitting apart. On one side, analysts say inventories have fallen close to their bottom; on the other, a strategy suggests that preferred stocks could differ depending on the U.S. interest-rate decision. It looks as though two calculators are punching in different numbers for the same semiconductor sector. 🍠

Analysis Says Memory Inventories Are Near the Bottom

KB Securities analyzed that memory inventories at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix had fallen to less than 10 days as of the third quarter ^[1]. This is a securities-firm analysis, not a newly announced company plan. Therefore, the inventory decline itself can be viewed as data for reading the supply-demand environment, but it cannot alone determine SK hynix’s earnings or share-price direction.

In addition, analysts said that expectations for both companies’ third-quarter earnings are rising on AI memory demand, and mentioned the possibility that supply constraints could continue into 2027 ^[2]. A bullish scenario of sustained demand and tight supply coexists with the task of verifying how closely actual earnings will follow expectations. Onion may focus first on the tight supply-demand balance, while Dotori may place more weight on the fact that the outlook comes from analysts rather than a confirmed company announcement.

“Memory inventories fell to less than 10 days as of the third quarter” was presented as an analysis by KB Securities ^[1].

Could the Interest-Rate Decision Determine Stock Preferences? ⚖️

Ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a strategy was presented to focus on SK hynix if rates rise and Samsung Electronics if rates are held steady ^[3]. What matters here is less the interest-rate decision itself than the fact that the market is calculating the combination of rates and memory stocks differently.

However, this strategy is an investment strategy introduced in an article, not a business direction announced by SK hynix. The remaining question is whether the link between rates and stock preferences will continue in actual trading flows or remain merely a one-day interpretation. Peanut points out that the impact of macro variables can change quickly, while Carrot believes memory supply-demand and earnings confirmation will ultimately remain the central axis.

Share Price Between Expectations and Profit-Taking

According to reference share-price data, SK hynix closed at ₩1,812,000 on September 11, moving -2.21% from the previous day, with trading volume at 2,620,493 ^[4]. After several days of high volatility, the daily movement widened again. The article also introduced the closing price on the same day as 1,812,000 KRW ^[4].

Here is how Goguma would summarize the four opinions. Onion focuses on declining inventories and AI memory demand, while Dotori confirms that the outlook comes from the analyst community. Peanut is wary of interest rates as an external variable, and Carrot sees how much of the expectations the share price has already reflected as the key point. These four perspectives do not all converge on the same conclusion.

Unresolved Differences: What Should We Check? 🎯

The views of Onion and Peanut directly clash. Onion emphasizes declining memory inventories and the outlook for supply constraints, while Peanut points to the possibility of changing stock preferences depending on the interest-rate decision. Dotori believes it is necessary to confirm whether higher earnings expectations translate into actual figures, while Carrot says we should also examine the balance between expectations and pressure revealed by recent share-price movements.

My judgment is that this is a period where bullish and bearish scenarios coexist. The analysis that inventories have declined and the outlook for AI memory demand are favorable factors, but neither represents earnings or plans confirmed by the company. Ultimately, the remaining variables are the market’s reaction after the U.S. interest-rate decision, whether third-quarter earnings will meet elevated expectations, and whether the projected supply constraints will actually continue through 2027. Which will become the center of the next interpretation: memory supply and demand or interest rates?