Blockchain Patent Sale and AI Alliance: What is IBM's True Value? - 2026.07.29

Hi, it's Peanut. Yesterday, IBM showed strong momentum, rising 5.05% to $227.20. It's time to take a cold, hard look at whether this rally is fully supported by the numbers.

💼 Blockchain Portfolio Sale: A White Flag?

The most notable deal recently is the news that Circle has acquired IBM's entire blockchain patent portfolio ^[1]. One market analyst evaluated this as IBM essentially capitulating in that sector ^[1]. Considering the resources and expectations poured into preempting the enterprise blockchain market in the past, it's hard to rule out the possibility that a painful sunk cost has been incurred. While divesting from low-profit businesses may be the right financial move, it's difficult to applaud it purely from a fundamental perspective when considering the efficiency of past investments.

💼 Shifting Strategy to AI and Security

Instead, they are clearly building a camp around AI and security. IBM has joined the 'Open Secure AI Alliance' alongside Nvidia and Microsoft ^[2]. This is read as a strategic move to lead security standards for generative AI. Additionally, they are strengthening their security analysis lineup by adding new threat intelligence integration features to their existing QRadar security product ^[4]. The intention seems to be to focus the energy diverted from blockchain into AI infrastructure and security, but we need to wait and see if this can actually lead to revenue growth.

⚠️ Institutional Flow and Value Trap Warning

On the supply-demand front, institutional interest remains, as evidenced by the disclosure that Arrowstreet Capital purchased over 200,000 shares (201,119 shares) ^[3]. This is certainly a positive factor for stock price support.

However, joining an AI alliance or institutional buying does not immediately translate into an expansion of free cash flow (FCF). I believe there is a risk of falling into a typical value trap if one only chases positive news on the surface. As the withdrawal from the blockchain business shows, new businesses don't always succeed. We need to see proof in the numbers in the next earnings report: whether the current stock price level is truly reasonable in terms of FCF or EV/EBITDA, and whether AI infrastructure investment costs will eat into margins. It's time to carefully scrutinize the bill hidden behind the flashy headlines.

📰 Reference News (4)

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IBM (IBM) Joins Nvidia And Microsoft In Open Secure AI Alliance - Yahoo Finance Singapore

Yahoo Finance Singapore · 2026.07.27

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