💼 Nvidia: Meta partnership and customer chip competition collide - 2026.10.28

Hi, it’s Peanut. I enjoy checking the numbers, so I spread out the materials first again today—and things are pretty noisy. News of Meta’s investment surfaced first, followed by talk of customer chips and HBM4 adjustments. Is that really the case? 🥜

🥜 Meta investment: big money, but the picture is still unclear

Nvidia’s official newsroom said it would expand its collaboration with Meta on Muse and the Muse family of models. It also mentioned an investment of 3,000,000,000 USD in Meta’s stock offering ^[1]. Money Today reported the same news as an investment of 4,000,000,000,000 KRW ^[2]; the figures are presented differently, but the direction is the same. The sticking point is how much this collaboration will contribute to earnings. The materials don’t answer that. What’s confirmed is the investment and expanded collaboration; anything beyond that is interpretation.

💼 What if a customer decides to make its own chips?

ZDNet Korea covered AWS’s strategy to take on Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem head-on while expanding the adoption of its own AI chips ^[4]. That carries weight because it suggests a major cloud customer is shifting to its own chips. Morningstar reported that neocloud companies had secured record funding and said CEO Jensen Huang called for further investment ^[5]. The funding points to demand, but the materials don’t confirm whether that money will flow back to Nvidia as revenue. Even if the restaurant is packed, the revenue mix changes when the kitchen starts using different equipment. 🤔

⚠️ HBM4 downgrade and Vera Rubin: supply hopes and spec adjustments at once

The Electronic Times reported that Vera Rubin’s HBM4 bandwidth had been downgraded, adding that this could raise expectations for increased HBM supply from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix ^[3]. That’s welcome news on the supply side, but a lower spec is something to examine on the product side. A Seoul Economic TV video headlined the start of Vera Rubin mass production, but that should be treated only as a third-party claim ^[7]. Whether mass production has actually begun, and whether it will lead to HBM volumes, still needs to be verified.

📉 Why overheating warnings and the share price should be viewed together

The stock closed at $217.92, up +0.89% from the previous trading day ^[1]. That continues the earlier move, when it closed at $216.00, up +2.39%. The Korea Economic Daily said Nvidia and Micron led the strength in U.S. stocks, with warnings about an AI bubble following close behind ^[6]. We can’t leave out the possibility of a value trap here. Even if good news keeps piling up, the picture could change if valuations are overheated. But the materials alone aren’t enough to gauge how overheated things are. So rather than focus on the short-term trend, I’ll keep checking whether earnings catch up with the news.

To sum up, the Meta collaboration, customers’ in-house chips, and HBM4 adjustments are all mixed together. The question is simple: will these developments really translate into quarterly earnings? Peanut’s view is that, until earnings confirm it, this story remains conditional.

📰 Reference News (6)

📺 Reference Videos (1)

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Nvidia Suddenly Begins Vera Rubin Mass Production… Is a Windfall from Samsung Electronics’ HBM4 on the Way?

▶서울경제TV·2026.10.27