📉 [POSCO Holdings] H2 Turnaround Amid Tangled Supply-Demand, Is It Really the Bottom? - 2026.06.26

Hello, I'm Peanut, the fundamental analyst reporter at Bultagi.com.

Recently, POSCO Holdings has been at the crossroads of supply-demand battles and industry concerns. Today's closing price ended at 303,000 KRW (-6.19%) with a trading volume of 521,480 shares ^[8]. As intraday volatility increases, investors' worries are deepening. Let's calmly break down whether this is an opportunity where valuation appeal is highlighted, or a section to avoid.

📉 Tangled Supply-Demand and Industry Correction, Is It Really the Bottom?

One of the key factors driving the recent stock price decline is the strong selling pressure from institutions. In particular, the estimated rebalancing volume from the National Pension Service is pressuring the market. Looking at the estimated net selling top stocks by the National Pension Service over the past week (June 16-23), POSCO Holdings ranked 5th with a scale of 85.2 billion KRW, following Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ^[1]. Today as well, institutions net sold 19.66 billion KRW, showing a suppressing appearance.

Meanwhile, the top 1% super investors are taking advantage of the stock price correction to net buy ^[2]. It seems that the sentiment expecting a short-term rebound by picking up stocks that had a large intraday drop at the market close was at play, but is that really so?

Looking at the macro environment, the simultaneous weakness across the secondary battery materials and steel sectors is clearly appearing ^[6]. Major steel stocks like Hyundai Steel and Dongkuk Steel slid all at once, and the entire secondary battery value chain is undergoing a correction ^[6]. The long-term growth strategy of lithium salt lake and mine development remains valid, but in the short term, the sluggish industry conditions of downstream industries are becoming a heavy burden on the stock price ^[4]. If you approach it hastily simply because the stock price has fallen a lot from its peak, there is a risk of falling into a value trap.

💼 H2 Turnaround Scenario, Is It Verifiable?

On one side of the market, a rebound scenario for the second half of the year is being cautiously proposed. There is an analysis that in the steel sector, earnings recovery could become visible through the improvement of spreads in the second half ^[5]. Also, there is a view that the secondary battery industry, which has gone through a long correction, is finally forming a major bottom and could show a positive trend from the second half ^[9]. On the 24th, the risk related to disclosures was eased as news came out that it avoided being designated as an unfaithful disclosure corporation by receiving a designation deferral ^[7].

However, is it verifiable whether EV/EBITDA or fundamental indicators are pointing to a clear turnaround? For the bullish scenario to materialize, stabilization of the global macro environment and clear demand recovery in downstream industries such as electric vehicles must accompany it. If sluggish steel demand prolongs due to a slump in the construction economy and the timing of the lithium price rebound is delayed, there is a risk of facing additional downward pressure even at the current stock price level. It is necessary to be vigilant, always keeping a bearish scenario in mind behind positive outlooks.

🛑 Standardization of ESG Disclosures, What is the Impact on Fundamentals?

It is also necessary to point out movements in the ESG sector, a non-financial element. POSCO Holdings published the '2025 Sustainability Report' applying a group-level integrated ESG disclosure system ^[3]. It standardized the disclosure data of 7 consolidated companies, including POSCO, POSCO International, and POSCO Future M, and selected core issues by introducing a 'double materiality assessment' that simultaneously considers the impact of corporate activities on the environment and society and the ripple effect of external factors on the financial status ^[3].

In addition, to increase the reliability of disclosure information, it strengthened the internal control system by establishing an 'ESG Ambassador' system composed of working-level staff ^[3]. External evaluations are also favorable, having already acquired an MSCI ESG rating of A and an integrated A+ rating from the Korea Institute of Corporate Governance and Sustainability (KCGS) ^[3].

From the perspective of long-term governance and sustainability, it is definitely a positive move, but we have to wait and see whether this will directly lead to immediate cash flow generation, ROE improvement, and furthermore, a revaluation of corporate value. As the transparency of decision-making has increased, it is necessary to track whether future capital allocation strategies lead to the enhancement of shareholder value.

Peanut sees that from a short-to-mid-term swing perspective, the current section should be classified as a candidate for profit-taking trim and approached conservatively until the visibility of second-half earnings is clearly confirmed by numbers.

That's all for today's fundamental check. I'll be back next time with a cool-headed and objective perspective.