📊 Hanwha Aerospace: Backlog Is Building, but Where Are the Earnings? - 2026.10.21

Hi, it’s Carrot 🥕 Today, I’m going to lay out the charts and numbers carefully first. The biggest question today is whether the pace of backlog growth and quarterly earnings are pointing in the same direction 📊

First came news that the defense Big 4’s order backlog had hit an all-time high at 120,000,000,000,000 KRW ^[1]. But on the same day, DS Investment & Securities lowered its target price for Hanwha Aerospace and reportedly forecast weak third-quarter earnings ^[2]. The picture is a little tangled: the backlog is growing, but earnings haven’t caught up yet. Honestly, this is a fascinating setup.

📊 The backlog is big, so why are earnings forecasts diverging?

According to the article, Hanwha Aerospace ranked first in the defense industry by order backlog ^[1]. The estimate by company comes to 60,923,800,000,000 KRW+α. But a backlog is more like a pile of orders on the books, which is different from money that shows up directly as revenue this quarter. That’s why I think we need to look at backlog figures and quarterly earnings figures separately. 🤔

DS Investment & Securities’ outlook is that third-quarter earnings will be weak ^[2]. That’s the brokerage’s forecast, not something the company has confirmed. The article only says the target price was lowered, without giving the exact figure, so I’ll stick to the direction and leave out the number too. Brokerage opinions should always be read as conditional.

🚀 The space sector is expanding

The Goheung National Industrial Complex for Space Launch Vehicles has passed the government’s central investment review ^[4]. It is scheduled to be developed in 2030, and 11 companies, including Hanwha Aerospace, have signed agreements to move in. Goheung County is also pushing to build a private launch site centered around the Naro Space Center. At the technical session of an international space industry conference, Hanwha Aerospace and Hyundai Rotem drew attention by presenting updates on their development of methane engines for reusable launch vehicles ^[5].

On the chart, it still feels like the stock is building a base rather than breaking out of its trading range. The space business plays out over a longer horizon than quarterly earnings, so the catch is that it’s hard to verify the numbers based only on the news so far. Even if a “wow, that’s incredible” announcement comes out, we still need to check which timelines and amounts are actually confirmed.

🎯 The variable introduced by LIG D&A’s bidding restriction

LIG D&A has received a two-year bidding restriction, raising concerns about disruption to air-to-air guided missile and combat unmanned vessel projects ^[3]. The article laid out a scenario in which Hanwha Aerospace, the second-place candidate, could take on the systems integration work as well. Combined with its existing first-place areas, such as propulsion systems, that would effectively give it a monopoly on South Korea’s Meteor development program ^[3]. “Effectively a monopoly” is the article’s interpretation, not confirmed news. The article doesn’t say how the bidding or allocation will actually be resolved, so I’ll leave this as an open question. You’re curious too, right?

🥕 Support levels and open questions on the chart

Looking at the price data, the October 16 closing price surged to +10.43% at ₩900,000, then fell -11.21% on October 20 to a closing price of ₩792,000. The October 21 close was ₩811,000, up +1.50%. To my eye, the October 20 low near ₩790,000 looks like a candidate for the bottom of the trading range. The real key is whether trading volume holds up here.

I think checking the numbers comes first in this setup too. So my rules of action never change: no all-in buying, no all-out selling, and act only if the support level breaks. ✨

There are three questions left: when the backlog will flow through to quarterly earnings, how the bidding situation will be resolved, and whether trading volume will provide support near the support level. Until at least one of these is confirmed by the numbers, I’ll hold off on making a call too. Let’s check the newly confirmed timelines and changes in figures together next time 🥕

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Defense Big 4’s Order Backlog at 120,000,000,000,000 KRW, a “Record High”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.21

📰 View original

2

Hanwha Aerospace Target Price Cut to 1,650,000 KRW… Weak Third-Quarter Earnings Forecast

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.21

📰 View original

3

“Two-Year Bidding Restriction” for LIG D&A: What Happens to Air-to-Air Missiles and Combat Unmanned Vessels?

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.21

📰 View original

5

Space Industry Experts from Around the World Gather in Gyeongnam for “International Space Industry Conference”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.21

📰 View original