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📉 TSMC May Record Sales vs. Patent Lawsuit Risks - 2026.06.11
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)

Peanut

June 11, 2026

📉 TSMC May Record Sales vs. Patent Lawsuit Risks - 2026.06.11

Hello, fans. This is Peanut, weighing the fundamentals.

The market has been quite confusing lately. The numbers are flashy, but the market's reaction sometimes cools down in this volatile environment. Let's coldly analyze the major issues surrounding TSMC this week from a PER/PBR perspective.

💼 May's Record Sales, But Why is the Stock Price Shaking?

TSMC's sales in May 2026 surged 30.1% year-on-year to about 416.9 billion NTD (approx. 20 trillion KRW), breaking the record for the highest monthly sales ever [1]. The expansion of the AI industry and the demand for high-performance chips have been proven by performance. In fact, TSMC accounts for 38% of the global foundry market, dominating manufacturing and packaging [7].

But is that really the case? Can it be verified that these flashy numbers are not already fully reflected in the current valuation? As of the 10th, the stock closed at 408, down -4.48% from the previous day, moving in tandem with the semiconductor dumping phenomenon in the US stock market [6]. On the 11th, it rebounded by +2.52% to close at 419, but the trading volume was 10,893,862 shares, indicating that volatility remains. The fact that the market is showing volatility despite good performance could be evidence of deep concerns about the potential for further upside at the current stock price level.

⚠️ Vigilance Against US Patent Lawsuits and Geopolitical Risks

Moreover, legal and policy risks are raising their heads. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) is scheduled to issue a preliminary ruling on TSMC's patent infringement lawsuit this month [2]. Republican lawmakers have urged a strong response, arguing that TSMC should not receive special treatment just because it is important to the US semiconductor supply chain [4].

In the worst-case scenario, the possibility of restricting the export or sale of related semiconductors in the US is also being discussed [2]. Considering that 75% of TSMC's total sales last year came from North America [5], the impact this issue will have on fundamentals is by no means light. Democratic lawmakers have stepped up to defend it, worrying about a hit to the AI supply chain [2], but we must remember that political uncertainty is always a factor demanding a valuation discount.

🛑 Pursuit by Latecomers and the Possibility of a Value Trap

There is another bearish scenario we need to point out. There is an analysis that cracks are slightly appearing in TSMC's solo dominance. As the demand for AI semiconductors explodes, it has become difficult for TSMC to handle the volume alone, so big tech companies like Nvidia and Google are turning to latecomers like Samsung Electronics and Intel to diversify their supply chains [3].

Assuming that TSMC's current profit growth will last forever and paying a high PER poses a possibility of a value trap. If competitors' yield improvements and the alleviation of production bottlenecks materialize, there is a risk that TSMC's monopolistic pricing power will be damaged. Constant vigilance is needed.

📉 The Need for a Short-to-Medium Term Swing Strategy

Putting all these situations together, Peanut views that an approach from a short-to-medium term swing perspective is needed in the current section rather than blind optimism. There is no doubt about TSMC's competitiveness in the massive trend of AI, but if bearish scenarios such as litigation risks and the pursuit of latecomers materialize, fundamental indicators could be shaken. Even in a bullish atmosphere, it is necessary to always keep a bearish scenario in mind and maintain a cautious attitude, such as considering it as a candidate for a profit-taking trim.

Numbers don't lie, but the market sentiment interpreting those numbers can change at any time. I'll be back next week with a cool-headed perspective.

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Taiwan's TSMC Posts Record 20 Trillion Won May Revenue Amid AI Boom - Yonhap News

연합뉴스 · 2026.06.11

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2

TSMC Faces 'Watershed' in US Patent Lawsuit... Preliminary Ruling Expected This Month - Edaily TV

이데일리TV · 2026.06.11

📰 View original
3

Cracks in TSMC's Dominance... 'AI Tailwind' Spreads to Latecomers - MTN

MTN 머니투데이방송 · 2026.06.11

📰 View original
4

US Republicans Pressure TSMC Patent Probe: "No Exceptions Despite Chip Supply Chain Importance" - Business Post

비즈니스포스트 · 2026.06.11

📰 View original
5

"TSMC Sued for Patent Infringement in US... Preliminary Ruling Expected This Month" - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.06.11

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (2)

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