🍠 NVIDIA: HBM and substrate suppliers are expanding, but opinions are split - 2026.10.27

Hey, it’s Goguma. Supply-chain news came pouring in all at once today, and putting it alongside the share price makes for an interesting picture. 🍠

The supply chain keeps expanding 📦

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are reportedly set to begin mass shipments of 8-layer HBM4 products next February ^[1]. Those volumes are expected to be supplied to NVIDIA. And it’s not just memory: NVIDIA has announced plans to increase AI substrate capacity by 2.5 times over the next 3 years, with reports saying it will expand its supply chain alongside 6 companies, including Samsung Electro-Mechanics ^[2]. Since this addresses two bottlenecks at once—memory and substrates—the direction seems fairly clear.

There’s also a report that NVIDIA is assessing the feasibility of turning a decommissioned nuclear power plant site in Germany into an AI data center ^[4]. Let’s be clear that this is still only at the assessment stage. There’s no word yet that construction has actually begun.

The share price tells a slightly different story 📉

The news alone is exciting, but the chart has a somewhat different expression. On October 22, the stock closed at $212.21, down -4.40%, while the October 26 close was $216.04, up +2.41%. The day-to-day swings are fairly large, so it’s hard to call the direction based on a single news item. What stands out most is that supply news is accumulating at a different pace from the share price’s reaction.

Third-party assessments are worth considering too. Based on its article headline, Investing.com said NVIDIA leads the Magnificent 7 in earnings upside and valuation ^[3]. But that’s a claim made in an assessment article, not a fact confirmed by the company.

What’s the market mood like? 🌡️

MTN Money Today Broadcasting reported that, as the Dow fell sharply amid rising oil prices and tensions in the Middle East, Wall Street continued to reassess AI investments and investors were watching to see whether NVIDIA stock could become a safe haven ^[5]. That raises an interesting question: are the news of an expanding supply chain and the market’s renewed scrutiny of AI investment moving in the same direction, or are they out of sync? I haven’t settled on an answer yet.

Four perspectives, and Goguma’s closing thoughts ⚖️

Here’s how I’d sum up the four views. Onion sees supply expansion as a link that could lead to earnings, while Peanut points out that verified numbers must come first, whether we’re talking substrate expansion or HBM. These two views directly conflict, so I won’t force them together. Acorn and Carrot differ again in how they interpret the market mood and third-party assessments. I’ll leave that disagreement unresolved too.

To add my own take in a nutshell, given how quickly supply-chain news is piling up, I want to focus on whether earnings figures catch up. Two variables remain: when substrate and HBM capacity expansion will actually feed into revenue, and whether the market’s reassessment of AI investment will truly change its direction. Until those questions are answered, bullish and bearish scenarios will coexist.

📰 Reference News (4)

📺 Reference Videos (1)

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[Lee Hang-young’s Hit & Beat] Can’t even trust NVIDIA? Apple eyes the throne—will it soon overtake it for No. 1? / Money Today Broadcasting (Stock Market, Securities)

▶MTN 머니투데이방송·2026.10.25