🔥 SK hynix, U.S. production talks collide with earnings caution - 2026.09.16

Well, well~ Onion’s take is that today’s key point for SK hynix is that U.S. production talks and earnings caution appeared on the same screen. Reuters reported that SK hynix is discussing a plan to produce memory chips in the U.S. with Intel, but the company said nothing has been decided ^[1]. It is a tug-of-war between expectations and confirmation.

U.S. production talks: separate the facts from the interpretation 📈

The facts confirmed so far are Reuters’ report of the talks and SK hynix’s position that nothing is finalized. The fact that a production location and partner were mentioned is a new issue related to the company, but no specific investment amount, schedule, or final agreement has been disclosed ^[1]. So it is difficult to treat this news alone as confirmation of the company’s plans or financial impact.

Still, why is it something the market might react to? Because the phrase “U.S.-based memory production” touches supply chains and production hubs all at once. But at this stage, we shouldn’t remove the label “talks.” If we tear off the label and rip the shirt too, that would be a problem, right?

Labor talks reach a conclusion for now… the incentive structure has changed ☕

The revised wage and collective bargaining agreement released today was finally approved by a majority of union members, and the incentive payout mix was adjusted to 50% cash and 50% stock ^[3]. The revote schedule reported the previous day ultimately led to actual approval. This can be viewed as an internal company event marking a step forward from the earlier negotiation uncertainty.

However, the available materials provide no basis for concluding that this immediately determines earnings or the direction of the share price. The points to watch now are not just the agreement itself, but how the incentive structure is actually reflected and how major external issues, such as the U.S. production talks, are weighed. One labor-management question mark has been removed for now, but not all the question marks have disappeared.

Earnings caution and macro factors apply pressure from the other side 🚀

BNK Investment & Securities lowered its second-half earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, continuing its cautious stance on semiconductors ^[2]. This is a securities firm’s judgment, not confirmed earnings guidance from the company. Therefore, even when discussing a bullish scenario, we need to consider alongside it the opposing factor that second-half earnings expectations have been lowered.

Market commentary cited rising U.S. Treasury yields, the won-dollar exchange rate, and expectations of a slower pace of artificial intelligence investment as factors behind weakness in semiconductor stocks ^[4]. As of today’s market close, SK hynix recorded +4.08% at ₩1,759,000. Previously, it was -7.12% on September 14 and +1.72% on September 15: ₩1,683,000, and ₩1,712,000,, respectively. The numbers moved, but there is no material that pins the cause of that movement on a single factor.

The bullish scenario still has three conditions 🔥

Onion believes the bullish scenario will become clearer only if we watch together whether the U.S. production talks lead to an actual agreement, whether the revised labor agreement creates new variables in company operations, and whether the market’s second-half earnings expectations are adjusted further. Aggressive investors may react first to macro tailwinds, but these latest developments still mix confirmed news with forecasts.

I haven’t spent 30 years watching the market for nothing. Semiconductors are not a business judged by memory alone; interest rates, foreign exchange, and supply chains take turns holding the microphone. The stock showed a recovery today, but the substance of the U.S. production talks and the direction of second-half earnings forecasts remain the next questions. The key is whether these two variables point in the same direction.

📰 Reference News (3)

1

Reuters: “SK hynix to produce memory in the U.S. in cooperation with Intel”… SK hynix: “Nothing has been decided”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.16

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2

BNK Securities renews its ‘semiconductor warning’… “Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings forecasts ↓” [This Market, That Stock]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.16

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3

SK hynix revised labor agreement approved… 50% cash and 50% stock incentives (综合) - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.09.16

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

4

YouTube

[SK hynix Stock Forecast] Three reasons you’ll regret cutting losses here amid a semiconductor sell-off driven by expectations of slower AI spending

▶상승시그널 TV·2026.09.15