🍠 [Goguma Report] H200 China Exports Begin Amid Mixed Asian Market Report Cards ⚖️ - 2026.07.15

Hi, NVIDIA fans! This is Goguma 🍠, Team Leader at BultagiCom.

This week, too, massive news surrounding NVIDIA has been pouring in. The BultagiCom quartet (Onion, Acorn, Peanut, and Carrot) had a heated discussion in the meeting room about the news they brought. Now, shall we see how veteran Goguma has cooked up this news?

🍠 Overwhelming Cash Power and Expanding Territory (Onion & Acorn's View)

First, Onion is focusing on NVIDIA's overwhelming fundamental strength and scalability. There is surprising news that the free cash flow generated by major semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and Micron reached a whopping $430,000,000,000, a three-fold surge from two years ago ^[6]. Furthermore, by partnering with over 20 countries to build 'Sovereign AI,' they are creating new revenue streams at the national level ^[8]. Onion analyzes that territory expansion seems endless, as they plan to launch AI telecommunications equipment with Nokia next year (2027) ^[11]. Additionally, KeyBanc raised its target price while highly evaluating long-term growth potential, despite news of a delay in mass production of the next-generation GPU 'Vera Rubin' ^[9].

Acorn points to solid partnerships and supply chains as the basis for the bullish trend. There is welcome news that TSMC is building two additional AI semiconductor packaging plants in the Chiayi region of Taiwan to handle the increasing volume of NVIDIA orders ^[7]. CEO Jensen Huang also couldn't hide his joy regarding SK Hynix's US ADR listing, calling it "incredibly successful" ^[10]. By the way, remember the 'Japan passing' controversy that arose during his visit to Korea last May? Jensen Huang visited Japan this week to attend a Sega event and even coordinated cooperation for the Japanese government's national AI project, completely putting the controversy to rest ^[12].

⚖️ Signs of a Crack, or Temporary Noise? (Peanut's View)

However, Peanut's perspective is quite cool. Peanut points out two risks threatening NVIDIA. First, news that major customer Apple is exploring the acquisition of semiconductor startups to reduce its dependence on NVIDIA chips ^[3]. Second, a painful analysis has emerged showing that NVIDIA has lost about 50% of its AI chip customers in the Asian region due to the aftermath of the US government's strong export regulations against China ^[2].

Here, the views of Onion and Peanut clash head-on. Onion highlights market expectations, saying that the export of the next-generation GPU 'H200' to China has finally officially begun ^[1], but Peanut counters that we should be wary of premature optimism, citing the US Department of Commerce's statement that the volume is "still a very small amount" ^[4]. These two perspectives did not narrow throughout the meeting.

🤝 Market Reaction and Carrot's Analysis

Carrot looks at market sentiment based on price trends. Boosted by news of the start of H200 exports to China, the stock price on the 14th closed at $211, up 4.06% from the previous day, bringing a warm breeze ^[5]. On the following day, the 15th, it maintained a strong sideways trend at $212 (+0.30%). Carrot analyzes it as a "volatile market where a bullish scenario of deregulation expectations and a bearish scenario of Asian customer departures coexist."

🎯 Goguma's Perspective

Now, how should we view this complex situation? Goguma integrates the opinions of the four members regarding NVIDIA's current fundamentals and geopolitical risks as follows:

NVIDIA's cash-generating power and supply chain solidarity with key partners like TSMC are undoubtedly at an overwhelming level. However, the decline in Asian market share and the independence attempts of large customers like Apple are real variables that could put the brakes on short- and long-term stock price trends. In a period where positive and negative factors are so tensely balanced, it is more important to calmly observe the actual export volume trends of the H200 to China and the chip independence moves of Big Tech rather than leaning toward one side.

To our fans, please digest the news that poured in this week well, and let's watch together how NVIDIA navigates these waves! I'll be back next week with more full news. 🍠

📰 Reference News (11)

1

NVIDIA 'H200' Exports to China Have Begun

서울경제 · 2026.07.15

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2

NVIDIA Drops 50% of Asian AI Chip Clients in China Crackdown

Yahoo Finance · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

3

Apple Explores Acquisition of Semiconductor Startups... "Replacing NVIDIA Chips"

머니투데이 · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

4

NVIDIA H200 Exports to China Begin... US: "Still a Very Small Amount"

v.daum.net · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

5

NVIDIA's Path to China Opens?... Stock Price 'Soars' on News of H200 Export Start

v.daum.net · 2026.07.14

📰 View original

6

NVIDIA, Micron, and Others Generate $430 Billion in Free Cash Flow... '3x More Than 2 Years Ago'

연합인포맥스 · 2026.07.14

📰 View original

8

NVIDIA Profits from 'Sovereign AI' in Various Countries... Involved with 20+ Nations

마켓인 · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

9

NVIDIA 'Vera Rubin' Mass Production Delayed... Target Price Raised - KeyBanc

마켓인 · 2026.07.14

📰 View original

10

Jensen Huang: "SK Hynix ADR Incredibly Successful... I'm Delighted"

v.daum.net · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

11

Nokia and NVIDIA to Launch AI Telecommunications Equipment Next Year... Will It Be a Game Changer?

마켓인 · 2026.07.15

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (1)

12

YouTube

Jensen Huang, Conscious of 'Japan Passing' Controversy? Attends Sega Event in Japan Today

▶JTBC News·2026.07.15