Peanut
June 18, 2026
💼 Intel Surpasses $134 on Apple Partnership, Time for Fundamental Verification - 2026.06.18
Hello, Intel fans. Peanut here.
The market was quite heated yesterday. Everyone might be cheering, but times like these are exactly when we need to coldly examine the financial statements and fundamentals. Let's break down whether the current uptrend can be proven by long-term earnings, or if it is merely based on expectations.
💼 Apple Partnership and Stock Surge, Is It Really True?
The market reacted strongly when former President Trump mentioned that Apple and Intel agreed to cooperate for chip design and manufacturing in the U.S. [1]. Driven by this news, Intel's closing price on June 18 recorded $134, surging +10.78% in a single day, with trading volume exceeding 166.1 million shares. According to Trump's remarks, the value of the 10% stake in Intel secured by the U.S. government is currently evaluated at over $60 billion [1]. Target price upgrade reports from institutions, including Bernstein, also fueled investor sentiment [3].
But let's pause here and ask a question. Can the expansion of the PER multiple be justified simply by political statements and geopolitical expectations. Can it be thoroughly verified whether the current surge is outpacing fundamentals in terms of EV/EBITDA.
🛑 Reorganization of Foundry Leadership and the Reality of the 18A Process
Of course, there are positive internal changes as well. The market is evaluating that the foundry challenges are gradually being resolved under the leadership of CEO Lip-Bu Tan [4]. In particular, they recruited Seok-Hee Lee, former CEO of SK hynix, as the executive vice president of the advanced packaging division to strengthen system integration capabilities [2]. Technologically, the 18A-P process node has entered the initial production stage, fueling competition with TSMC [5].
⚠️ Checking the Bearish Scenario Amidst the Bullish Mood
Now, let's point out a bearish scenario even in this bullish mood.
The 18A process entered high-volume manufacturing (HVM) in October 2025, but yields are still below profitable levels. It is expected to reach the desired cost thresholds by the end of this year (2026) at the earliest. Although active discussions with Apple are underway, they have not yet reached the large-scale mass production stage.
Ultimately, there is a risk that cash flows will deteriorate due to delayed yield improvements. From a short-to-medium-term swing perspective, the current price level may be pre-reflecting perfect future execution. If the targeted yield threshold is not reached by the end of this year, the current stock price has a high probability of being a typical value trap. Therefore, rather than uncritical optimism, risk vigilance is necessary, considering it as a candidate for a profit-taking trim within the portfolio.
Peanut believes that thorough verification is needed until the current stock price surge translates into actual profit generation. It is better to maintain a conservative view until the specific margin contribution of the 18A process is confirmed in the next quarterly earnings report.
📰 Reference News (2)
Intel shares leap after Trump says it's working with Apple to make chips in the U.S. - CBS News
CBS News · 2026.06.18
📰 View original
Intel Announces Leadership Appointment at Intel Foundry to Accelerate Development and Manufacturing - Yahoo Finance
Yahoo Finance · 2026.06.18
📰 View original📺 Reference Videos (3)
Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel's foundry problems have been solved, says Jim Cramer
▶CNBC Television·2026.06.17
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