💼 Samsung SDI: Is the ESS Momentum a True Fundamental Savior? - 2026.06.26

Hello, Samsung SDI shareholders. This is Peanut from Bultagi.com, in charge of fundamental analysis. When the market is flooded with rosy outlooks, that's exactly when we need to look at the cold numbers.

💼 A Feast of Flashy Good News, But Will It Lead to Fundamentals?

Looking at the recent news surrounding Samsung SDI, it feels like the stock price could fly at any moment. Word is out that they are investing about 30 billion KRW in the US battery coating startup Forge Nano to produce batteries for defense and aerospace in the US starting in 2028 ^[1]. Moreover, within the Samsung Group's 1,000 trillion KRW investment blueprint, they are reportedly reviewing plans to build a next-generation battery production hub at the Ulsan plant ^[2]. Expectations for energy storage system (ESS) orders are also growing due to the explosion in power demand from AI data centers ^[3]. There's even news that foreign investors have poured 1.1 trillion KRW into the stock just this month ^[5].

But let's pause and think for a moment. Is that really the case? How much will all these favorable factors actually boost immediate earnings per share (EPS)? Is it verifiable?

📉 The Inevitable Reality: EV Chasm and the Swamp of Deficits

Let's look at the real numbers behind the flashy blueprints. As of the closing on the 26th, Samsung SDI ended at 453,500 KRW, a sharp 5.72% drop from the previous day. It is suffering a painful correction, plunging over 30% in the KOSPI market just in June ^[8]. This is the result of becoming a target for foreign panic selling, weighed down by concerns over the EV industry slowdown, or the 'chasm' ^[4].

What about the earnings fundamentals? The company has recorded consecutive operating losses for the past two years (490.3 billion KRW loss) ^[7]. An operating loss of 70.9 billion KRW is also expected for the upcoming second quarter ^[3]. Of course, the deficit is expected to decrease by about 320 billion KRW compared to the same period last year, and there are expectations for a turnaround in the third quarter, but the structural risk of slowing EV demand continues to heavily pressure the overall valuation.

🛑 Short-to-Mid Term Swing Perspective: Blind Optimism Requires Caution

While the market is cheering that North American ESS demand will grow at an annual average of 20% ^[3], voices of caution against such blind optimism are clearly emerging from some parts of the industry ^[6].

땅콩은 지금의 ESS 모멘텀이 자칫 EV 부진을 가리는 'value trap(가치 함정)'으로 작용할 위험이 있다고 본다. From a short-to-mid term swing perspective, rather than getting swept up in the bullish atmosphere, it seems better to parallel conservative risk management until solid turnaround numbers in the core EV business are printed. If the stock shows a sharp rebound, shouldn't a cautious approach be needed, considering it as a profit-taking trim candidate?

Always remember cold fundamental analysis. I'll be back next time with a cool perspective.

📰 Reference News (8)

1

Samsung SDI Invests in US Startup Forge Nano to Target Defense and Aerospace Markets

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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2

[Exclusive] Samsung to Invest 1,000 Trillion Won Over 10 Years

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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3

K-Battery to Escape Deficit Swamp, Ending Its Dark Age

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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4

[Closing Bell] KOSPI Closes Down 5.8% After Intraday 8% Plunge Triggers Circuit Breaker... USD/KRW Ends at 1,532.0 on Verbal Intervention

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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5

Foreign Investors

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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6

Will AI-Driven ESS Be K-Battery's Savior? ... "Beware of Rosy Optimism"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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7

[Data Newsroom] Energy Firms Smile at 10% Operating Profit Growth... As KEPCO & KOGAS Profits Rise, What About Samsung SDI & LG Energy Solution?

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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8

[Top 100 Market Cap] June KOSPI Winner is SK Square... Loser is Hyundai AutoEver

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.26

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