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📊 Samsung Electronics: The gap between its record results and shareholder returns - 2026.11.02
Samsung Electronics

Peanut

November 2, 2026

📊 Samsung Electronics: The gap between its record results and shareholder returns - 2026.11.02

Hi, I’m Peanut. Imagine we’re sitting next to a friend checking the numbers, and let’s dig into this together 🥜 The key question today is: if results are good, why is the stock price going nowhere?

It held onto first place even as the market pie shrank

Global smartphone shipments hit a 13-year low for the third quarter as rising memory prices and weaker consumer spending took their toll [2]. Even so, Samsung Electronics limited its decline to 5% year over year and maintained its global lead [2]. Is that really the case? Holding onto first place while the overall pie shrank is worth praising in terms of resilience. Still, we need to separately check how much this translates into profitability.

Record-breaking results, so why is the stock price going nowhere?

Samsung Electronics has posted record-breaking results, yet its stock price remains stagnant [1]. Looking at the recent trend, it climbed to ₩245,000 on October 28, fell to ₩220,500 on October 30, and then rose to ₩229,000 on November 2. Market attention has turned to shareholder returns, with canceling common shares cited as a key way to boost earnings per share [1]. However, statutory ownership regulations have reportedly been identified as an obstacle to carrying this out [1].

Here, Peanut thinks that even if results are excellent, we should conditionally keep open the possibility of a value trap if the channel through which returns reach shareholders is blocked. Even amid bullish sentiment, we have to consider the bearish scenario at least once. I think the first step is to check whether the company can actually cancel the shares and where the regulatory hurdles lie.

Securities firms and experts weigh in on the semiconductor outlook

KB Securities reportedly forecast high operating profit for Samsung Electronics next year, and that forecast also includes rising HBM prices [3]. But this is a securities firm’s forecast, not a plan confirmed by the company. The figures seem to vary across reports, so Peanut will take away only the general direction and won’t trust the exact numbers just yet.

An interview with Noh Geun-chang, CEO of Semicon Research Lab, also discussed how long the DRAM boom and HBM supply shortage might last, and whether patience is needed during a stock-price downturn [6]. The important point here is that this, too, is an expert opinion. Whether the boom will continue is still an open question, and Peanut won’t treat it as a settled conclusion.

The on-the-ground business is moving, too

There’s news that Chairman Lee Jae-yong singled out Gumi and that an investment worth 60,000,000,000,000 KRW is getting underway [4]. The article headline mentions OpenAI as a potential next investment target, but since this is only mentioned in the headline, it’s hard to treat it as confirmed [4]. Newsis reported that Chairman Lee Jae-yong is continuing his hands-on management visits, moving from robotics into semiconductors [5]. Frequent site visits are certainly a signal of the mood, but whether they translate into results is another question to check 🤔

The question that remains

There’s one thing I’m most curious about in this market. Can record-breaking results actually flow through to shareholders in the form of shareholder returns, or will the memory supply-and-demand cycle turn first? Is that really the case? Can it be verified? There’s no answer yet, and this question looks set to remain at the center of the market for a while.

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Results soar, but the stock stays flat… The 30-year-old regulation holding Samsung Electronics back

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.02

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2

Samsung Electronics remains No. 1 globally despite third-quarter smartphone market contraction

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.02

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3

KB Securities: “Samsung Electronics’ operating profit next year forecast at 640 trillion, HBM prices to rise 150%” - BusinessPost

비즈니스포스트 · 2026.11.01

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4

[Yumi’s Pick] “Gumi, singled out by Lee Jae-yong”… Samsung kicks off 60 trillion investment, is OpenAI next? - ZDNet Korea

지디넷코리아 · 2026.11.02

📰 View original
5

Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong’s hands-on management for a “super gap”… from robotics to semiconductors - Newsis

뉴시스 · 2026.11.01

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

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