📈 SK hynix: The gap between record-breaking results and the HBM4 race - 2026.11.01

Well now, Onion is here~ After 30 years watching the market, your manager Onion can’t just let this one slide ☕ On the 30th of last month, SK hynix closed at ₩1,391,000, down -8.24% from the previous trading day. The results were record-breaking, yet the stock was the first to hang its head. Now, this gap is where today’s story begins.

Record results, so why did the stock wobble? 📉

Third-quarter operating profit came in at 83,333,800,000,000 KRW ^[1]. But the article focused more on factors behind the stock’s weakness than on that figure. The U.S. midterm elections and uncertainty around AI investment were among the key factors ^[1]. It also noted that while cloud revenue rose, the cash left over after investment declined ^[1]. The numbers look good, but the market is looking at what comes next. What have I always said~ After 30 years, I’ve learned that the market always reacts to the outlook ahead before it reacts to past results.

HBM4: Samsung’s pursuit and SK hynix’s defense 🚀

According to a report by Yonhap News TV, the HBM4 race has entered a new phase. Samsung is catching up, while SK hynix is reportedly holding on to its leading position ^[5]. The original report says the detailed figures need to be checked, so let’s focus on the direction for now. Another article reported that Samsung Electronics is confident of a threefold surge in HBM4 revenue and a recovery in market share ^[2]. SK hynix, meanwhile, is said to be raising its yield targets ^[2]. It’s a tug-of-war. When one side pulls, the other pushes right back, so there’s no telling how long the leader will stay on top. The backdrop also includes a prolonged memory supply shortage ^[2].

Customer partnerships, next year’s outlook, and the questions that remain 🤝

News emerged that Chairman Chey Tae-won had a luncheon meeting with Sam Altman, where they discussed cooperation on HBM and AI data centers ^[4]. But these were discussions, so don’t read them as a finalized contract or plan. Onion sees a clear bullish scenario for HBM. Whether that scenario turns into actual orders, though, remains to be seen.

Reports say that, fueled by AI demand, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix posted record-breaking results, and forecasts suggest both companies will do even better next year ^[3]. That is a forecast included in the report, not a plan confirmed by the companies. That’s why we shouldn’t make a definitive call based on this alone. Still, it’s hard not to get excited from a bull’s perspective. Well now, the market’s come alive!

To sum up, there are three factors to watch in this round: the U.S. midterm elections and the direction of AI investment; whether SK hynix can meet its yield targets and fend off Samsung’s HBM4 pursuit; and whether next year’s earnings outlook shows up in actual numbers. They say memory needs to be good, but will the market remember the next round more than past results? Let’s watch together for the answer 📈

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Shares Waver Despite Strong Results: U.S. Midterms and AI Investment in Focus - Sisajournal-e

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.01

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2

A New Phase in the HBM4 Race Amid a Memory Boom: Samsung Pursues, SK hynix Defends

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.01

📰 View original

3

[Biz Talk] Samsung and SK hynix Post Record Results, Both Say “Next Year Will Be Better”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.01

📰 View original