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🥜 The 450 Billion Won Bill Hidden in the SpaceX Rally: Are the Fundamentals Safe? - 2026.06.14
Hanwha Aerospace

Peanut

June 14, 2026

🥜 The 450 Billion Won Bill Hidden in the SpaceX Rally: Are the Fundamentals Safe? - 2026.06.14

Hello, Hanwha Aerospace fans. I'm Peanut, a fundamentals analyst at Bultagi.com. On the 12th, the closing price ended at 1,078,000 won (+6.31%), showing a strong rebound. Institutions net bought 37.49 billion won, reflecting the market's expectations. But is there really no hidden risk behind this bullish atmosphere? Let's coldly break down the numbers from a short-to-medium swing perspective.

💼 450 Billion Won Safety Investment: Medicine or Poison for Fundamentals?

Following the recent Daejeon plant accident, the company launched the 'Safety Culture Innovation Committee' centered around external experts [1]. It consists of 13 members in total, chaired by Yonsei University Professor Moon Il [1]. The number we need to pay attention to here is the execution of a massive 452.4 billion won for safety environment improvements this year [1].

This is a significant increase compared to last year's budget (247 billion won), which is naturally welcome from an ESG perspective. However, from a financial modeling perspective, we must ask a question. "What kind of downward pressure will this massive CAPEX investment put on future Free Cash Flow (FCF) and EV/EBITDA multiples?" There is a risk that this will lead to a structural cost increase, so the possibility of a value trap must be thoroughly verified.

⚠️ Mirion Helicopter Engine Defect: A Prelude to a Value Trap?

On top of this, quality risks have overlapped. Flights have been suspended after corrosion was found in 47 and diffuser cracks in 38 out of 57 'Mirion' light armed helicopter engines assembled and delivered by the company for the Army [2]. Differences from the original manufacturer's process method during assembly are being cited as the cause [2].

Reliability is the core of a defense company. We need to be wary of the possibility that such quality issues could lead to the establishment of provisions in the future, damaging quarterly earnings (EPS).

📉 SpaceX IPO and Export Momentum: Will They Justify PER Expansion?

Of course, positive macro signals also exist. As SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $2.12 trillion (about 3,200 trillion won), strong momentum is also blowing into Hanwha Aerospace, the leading stock of K-New Space [3]. As the company overseeing the entire process of the 4th Nuri launch, its space business value is being re-evaluated [3]. Participation in the '2026 International Space Conference' opening in Daejeon on the coming 16th is also noteworthy [5].

In addition, export fundamentals still look solid, as they are participating in 'Eurosatory 2026' in Paris starting on the 15th to target European orders [4], and the UAE has dispatched transport planes to receive early delivery of Cheongung-II, which proved a 96% interception rate [6].

Peanut sees that while the current stock rebound is based on space infrastructure expectations and a solid export order backlog, we must definitely go over the scenario of profit damage due to the pre-reflection of quality costs and large-scale safety facility investments in the second half of the year. Even in a bull market, if overshooting compared to fundamentals occurs, continuous tracking and observation are necessary to see if it is a section worth considering as a candidate for profit-taking trimming.

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Hanwha Aero

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.14

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2

Engine Defect in Next-Gen Domestic Attack Helicopter 'Miron'... Flights Suspended

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.13

📰 View original
3

SpaceX's Spectacular Nasdaq Debut... K-New Space Market Also Expanding

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.14

📰 View original
4

Targeting the 'Patriot Gap'... K-Defense Competes for Orders on Europe's Biggest Stage

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.14

📰 View original
5

'2026 International Space Conference' Opens in Daejeon... 4,000 Attendees from 50 Countries

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.14

📰 View original

📺 Reference Videos (1)

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