📊 TSMC 3nm Steps Into Samsung’s HBM Arena - 2026.10.21

Hi, it’s Carrot 🥕 Today, I’m bringing you the story of TSMC’s 3nm process making its way into Samsung Electronics’ HBM arena. It may sound like news about a competitor, but it’s ultimately about TSMC’s advanced process being used in a customer’s AI memory, so it caught my eye from a chart perspective too 📊

TSMC’s 3nm process is reportedly being used for Samsung’s HBM lower die

Global Economic reported that Samsung Electronics is pursuing a practical, flexible strategy by sourcing the lower die for its NVIDIA-customized memory using TSMC’s 3nm process ^[1]. Seoul Economic TV covered the same development, saying NVIDIA’s requirements were behind it and describing it as the first HBM manufacturing partnership between TSMC and Samsung ^[4]. The key point is simple: TSMC’s process is actually being used to produce AI memory. That’s what the reports say; no one has yet said how much revenue this will bring to TSMC 💡

The stock is moving to a different rhythm

News Free Zone noted that Samsung Electronics’ stock is down 40% from its peak but is still up 82% so far this year, with a trading range 3 times wider than TSMC’s over the same period ^[3]. It’s about Samsung, but the comparison alongside TSMC makes it worth keeping an eye on. So what does TSMC’s quote look like? The October 20 closing price was $425.40, the change was +1.23%, and volume was 11,083,407. After sliding from $430.00 on October 14 to $412.61 on the 16th, it rebounded, so I’m watching the area around the recent low of $413.15 as the bottom of the range 🎯

The debate over a peak in margins is still open

The title of Seeking Alpha’s analysis article is The Margin Peak That Isn't. The title suggests the view that margins have not peaked ^[2]. But I haven’t checked the full article, so it’s best to treat this only as the claim raised by the title. The actual margin figures will show whether that claim holds up, and I don’t have an answer yet 🤔

I think the first thing Carrot wants to see is whether demand for 3nm really does extend to Samsung’s HBM business. No all-in buying, no all-in selling, and act only if support breaks—that’s my rule ✨

There are three open questions: how Samsung’s HBM sourcing structure will show up in TSMC’s results, whether the debate over a margin peak will be settled by actual figures, and whether the bottom of the range around $413.15 will hold. If we get an answer to even one of these, I’ll come back to it right away 🥕