📉 TSMC: Could Margins Become a Drag After an Earnings Surprise? - 2026.10.18

Hi, it’s Peanut. Let’s talk as if we’re checking the numbers together with a friend who’s good with figures. 🥜 The key takeaway this time is that earnings surprised to the upside, but margins retreated ^[1].

📉 Results Were Strong, So Why Did Margins Slip?

According to Alpha Economy’s analysis, TSMC’s third-quarter results beat expectations ^[1]. But margins moved in the opposite direction, with the 2nm ramp-up and overseas fabs cited as the causes ^[1]. I paused here for a moment. Is that really the case? Even if revenue grows, if margins don’t keep pace, a good quarter doesn’t necessarily mean the underlying business structure is healthy.

JoongAng Ilbo’s Global Money Club also said it took another look at these “record-breaking results” ^[2]. However, the summary alone doesn’t provide enough detail to confirm what evidence it examined. Can this be verified? I think we’ll need to check the original article to find out.

🛑 AI Concerns and Uncertainty Next Year

A Maekyung Wall Street program discussed the background to TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei’s remark that “next year is uncertain” ^[5]. The same program also covered Jensen Huang and Dan Ives pushing back against concerns about CoreWeave ^[5]. The important point is that “uncertain” was the chairman’s wording. I don’t think it should be read as a definitive earnings forecast.

On 815 Money Talk, Semicon Research Lab CEO Roh Geun-chang examined whether concerns about an oversupply of AI semiconductors were exaggerated ^[6]. The program also covered news that TSMC’s data center revenue had risen sharply ^[6], but I’ll deliberately leave out the exact growth rate. It’s a figure from just one source, so it needs further verification.

There’s also an article asking whether Nvidia is undervalued compared with TSMC after its share price fell 9% from its peak ^[3]. Since the article poses a comparison question, it’s hard to treat it as a conclusion about relative valuation.

💼 Peanut’s Bearish Scenario

TSMC closed at $412.61 on 2026-10-16, down -2.28% from the previous trading day. Compared with its October 8 close of $457.99, the trend has been steadily weakening. The share price falling even after strong results could mean the market is focusing more on slowing margins and the burden of capital investment.

Even in a bullish environment, it’s worth considering a bearish scenario. If margins keep slipping while overseas fab costs pile up, strong results could turn into a potential value trap. This isn’t a forecast, but a question based on certain conditions.

Meanwhile, a Naver blog post said TSMC’s record results could be read as a demand signal for Korea’s semiconductor industry ^[4], but since the article needs to be checked in full, I’ll leave out specific figures.

From a short- to medium-term swing-trading perspective, I think we should watch the margin trend alongside the pace of the 2nm ramp-up. Peanut believes that even strong earnings need margins to hold up as well.

Two questions remain: Will margins recover, and when will the burden of overseas fabs show up in the results? No one has given a definitive answer yet.

📰 Reference News (4)

📺 Reference Videos (2)

5

YouTube

[Moon Ji-woong’s Big Money LIVE] Jensen Huang and Dan Ives Push Back on CoreWeave Concerns | Why TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei Said “Next Year Is Uncertain” | Anthropic’s Revenue Growth Rate Plunges

▶매경 월가월부·2026.10.16

6

YouTube

[#GlobalInsight] “Another Semiconductor Crash Ahead?” The Final Factors Shaking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix… A Full Review of Anthropic and TSMC Risks | Roh Geun-chang, CEO of Semicon Research Lab

▶815머니톡·2026.10.16