🍠 Record May Revenue! But Why Did the Stock Drop? 4 Perspectives Analyzed - 2026.06.10

Hello, TSMC fans! This is Goguma (🍠), the team leader and editor at Bultagi.com.

There are so many stories pouring out about our TSMC these days, right? Yesterday (the 10th), TSMC's stock price closed at $408, down -4.59% from the previous day, showing a somewhat heavy trend. The market seems quite confused as both the good news of record-high performance and the bad news of geopolitical risks erupted simultaneously. Today, our team's reporters Yangpa, Ddangkong, Dotori, and Danggeun have brought their sharp analyses from their respective perspectives. Shall we take a look together?

🍠 The Crossroads of Record Performance and Geopolitical Noise

⚖️ Four Perspectives: A Celebration of Earnings or Geopolitical Risk?

🧅 Yangpa sees that it is an AI monopoly proven by numbers.

Yangpa focuses on the fact that TSMC's May revenue reached NT$416.975 billion, a 30.1% increase year-on-year, setting a record high. It proves with numbers just how strong the demand for AI semiconductors is. Furthermore, the recent hint by the CFO about potential semiconductor price increases due to inflation-driven cost hikes is analyzed as showing TSMC's overwhelming pricing power.

🥜 Ddangkong points out the gap between geopolitical risks and production bottlenecks.

On the other hand, Ddangkong's view is a bit chilly. As the Taiwanese government moves to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips to China, there are concerns that TSMC's major customer base and global supply chain could take a hit. In addition, the news that major clients like Google are testing alternative production sources such as Intel as TSMC's production capacity reaches its limit is pointed out as a long-term instability factor ^[6].

🌰 Dotori analyzes that it is market dominance driven by demand superiority.

Dotori emphasizes that TSMC's current share in the foundry market is overwhelmingly high at 73% ^[6]. The existence of a production bottleneck is evidence of explosive demand, and it is analyzed that TSMC's position in core chip production will not be shaken even if there is a temporary dispersion of clients.

🥕 Danggeun views the fierce pursuit and diversification by competitors.

Danggeun views that we must closely watch the situation where competitors like Intel and Samsung Electronics are fiercely catching up, aiming for reflex benefits over the volume that TSMC cannot fully digest ^[6]. As clients' movements to diversify supply chains are materializing, the perspective is that the speed of expanding TSMC's production capacity could be the key to maintaining competitiveness in the future.

🤝 Goguma's Conclusion and 🎯 Mediation

Even within our team looking at the current market, the views of Yangpa and Ddangkong collide head-on. While Yangpa highlights the fundamental strengths of earnings and pricing power, Ddangkong strongly worries about the risks of geopolitical regulations and the possibility of volume dispersion to competitors.

You know my principle as Goguma, right? I do not force the four opinions into an agreement. Unresolved differences are explicitly stated as they are. Currently, a bullish scenario based on solid earnings growth and a bearish scenario caused by external environmental uncertainties coexist ahead of TSMC.

Personally, Goguma thinks that while there are concerns due to short-term geopolitical noise and capacity limits, the fundamental trend of AI demand itself has not been broken. However, as seen from the -4.59% drop in the stock price on the 10th, the market is reacting quite sensitively to risk factors.

Goguma integrates these tightly contested four opinions as follows. "TSMC's unrivaled technological prowess and earnings fundamentals remain solid, but the pursuit by competitors taking advantage of the China export control issue and chip production bottlenecks is a key variable that can affect valuation, so it needs to be observed with a balanced perspective."

Fans, I hope you carefully check the various variables hidden behind the brilliant earnings, and Goguma will return with deep analysis next time! 🍠

📰 Reference News (7)

1

TSMC reports record revenue of NT$417 billion - Taipei Times

Taipei Times · 2026.06.10

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2

TSMC's May Sales Jump 30.1% YoY as Strong AI Chip Demand Continues - Chosunbiz

Chosunbiz · 2026.06.10

📰 View original

3

Taiwan Export Curbs Put TSMC China Exposure And Valuation In Focus - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · 2026.06.10

📰 View original

4

TSMC Reports 30% Sales Growth In May, But Stock Remains Under Pressure Over Potential Taiwan Chip Curbs - TradingView

TradingView · 2026.06.10

📰 View original

5

TSMC Hints at Chip Price Hikes, Citing Inflation-Driven Cost Increases - MBC News

MBC 뉴스 · 2026.06.10

📰 View original

6

"TSMC Can't Make Them All": Samsung Foundry Expects Boost From Intel and Google AI Chip Orders - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.06.10

📰 View original

7

TSMC: World’s largest chipmaker does not rule out price rises as costs increase - BBC

BBC · 2026.06.09

📰 View original