⚠️ POSCO Holdings: A Tug-of-War Between Recovery Hopes and Labor Uncertainty - 2026.09.17

Hi, it’s Peanut. Even with expectations for a recovery in steel and lithium, POSCO Holdings’ share price still appears to be catching its breath. The September 17 closing price was ₩327,000,, with a daily change of +0.15%. Looking only at the numbers, it seems to be holding up—but is that really the case? We need to consider both the pace of the business recovery and on-site risks.

Recovery Hopes Are There, but Earnings Confirmation Is Still Pending 📉

The key factors surrounding POSCO Holdings in the market recently have been expectations for improved profitability in its steel and lithium businesses. Reports on September 17 said that recovery hopes for both businesses continued, while the stock moved without a clear direction ^[3]. More important than a single day’s price is whether those expectations translate into actual quarterly earnings.

On September 16, reports also noted that uncertainty remained around steel industry conditions and raw material and energy costs ^[2]. Profitability improvements in lithium and liquefied natural gas were mentioned, but if the cost structure of the core steel business becomes a burden again, the scope for recovery expectations could narrow. What matters here is not simply ‘will it improve?’ but which business will show what degree of improvement in its actual results.

Australian Critical Minerals Research: Business Connectivity Is Key 💼

There was also coverage of research personnel working on critical minerals in Australia in connection with POSCO N.E.X.T Hub, the future technology research institute of POSCO Holdings. The report said that BHP, Rio Tinto, Hancock Prospecting, PLS, research institutes, and universities attended the opening ceremony ^[4].

This involves more than a simple event announcement, as it has links to materials connected with secondary-battery raw materials. However, interpreting research personnel and collaboration networks as immediately translating into production volume or profit would be skipping a step. Ultimately, whether this can be validated depends on whether research results lead to business outcomes such as securing actual raw materials, improving processes, and reducing costs. The connections matter more than the outward form of the announcement.

The Heaviest Variable Is the Labor Dispute at POSCO ⚠️

Reports said that the POSCO union had announced a second partial strike and that 13 union officials had issued a statement saying they would continue the struggle ^[1]. The report highlighted both that POSCO’s strike was described as the first since the company’s founding and that the conflict occurred at a key affiliate of POSCO Holdings.

If the steel industry is entering a recovery phase, production disruptions and cost burdens could collide head-on with those expectations. Of course, the actual impact will inevitably depend on the scope and duration of the strike and the outcome of negotiations. Rather than immediately concluding that this issue will worsen earnings, it is more appropriate to treat it as a variable requiring confirmation of what impact it leaves on operations and costs in the steel division.

Questions That Remain Even for Short- to Medium-Term Swings 🛑

If we group together the bullish factors, we see expectations for improved steel and lithium profitability and expanded critical-minerals research in Australia. Turning to the bearish scenario, steel industry conditions, raw material and energy costs, and labor-management tensions all remain. This combination creates a structure that calls for caution over the possibility of a value trap when expectations run ahead of earnings. Peanut sees POSCO Holdings not as a stock that can be explained solely by recovery hopes, but as one where we need to verify whether those expectations connect to actual cash generation and quarterly results.

Ultimately, the remaining questions are simple. When will improved profitability in steel and lithium translate into actual numbers, and how will POSCO labor-management tensions affect production and costs? If we also factor in the speed at which cooperation on Australian research connects to business results, there may be grounds to recalculate the valuation.