📊 TSMC’s Stock Moves in Opposite Directions After Six Straight Quarters of Record Results - 2026.10.17

Hi, it’s Goguma 🍠 Let’s start today with TSMC. Results are extraordinary, so why did the stock fall? That gap is the heart of today’s story.

The numbers look dazzling, so why did the stock fall?

According to an Investing.com Korean-language article, TSMC’s third-quarter net income rose 68.7% on the AI boom, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter ^[1]. The Motley Fool also noted six straight quarters of record profits, with its headline asking why the stock fell despite strong results ^[2].

Looking at the price action, the closing price on October 8 was $457.99, and the closing price on the 16th was $413.08. On the 16th alone, the stock was down -2.17%. Even with strong numbers, the market seems to be looking at something else. That’s my interpretation. The available information isn’t enough to say exactly what the market is weighing.

Demand is hot, but capacity is tight

CNBC reported analysts’ view that surging AI demand has strained capacity at TSMC’s factories, with companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, and AMD competing fiercely for production of GPUs, CPUs, and custom AI chips ^[6]. It’s like waiting for a table at a popular restaurant: the line is long, but the number of seats is fixed. Wikileaks Korea also covered how companies are reportedly using their connections to secure TSMC production capacity ^[3].

That said, these are accounts from analysts and media reports. It’s worth being clear that they don’t represent a confirmed company plan or finalized allocations for individual customers.

Texas and Terafab: operating control is the issue

AI Times reported that TSMC confirmed talks related to Elon Musk’s “Terafab.” It also said the company had taken this position:

"We must be the ones to retain operational control" ^[4]

The WSJ reported that TSMC is considering an expansion in Texas and is also in talks related to Musk’s Terafab ^[5]. It’s not yet clear whether the two reports describe the same picture or who would operate the facilities. This is one area where interpretations have yet to converge.

Goguma’s Take

Here’s how I’d sum up the four views. However, the information available doesn’t provide enough detail on the conclusions of each perspective, so I won’t force them into agreement. The three big variables are why earnings and the stock price are moving in opposite directions, how customer allocations will play out amid the capacity race, and how operational control will be structured for Texas and Terafab. 🤝

Why didn’t strong results lift the stock? Whether the answer will emerge in the next announcement or come down to another factor is the open question in today’s story. ⚖️

📰 Reference News (5)

📺 Reference Videos (1)

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YouTube

Why There’s An ‘Extremely Fierce’ Battle For TSMC's Limited Chip Manufacturing Capacity

▶CNBC·2026.10.15