🍠 SpaceX Trillionaire vs Tesla's 11% Drop: Uncovering the Truth Behind the Diverging Fates! - 2026.06.12

Hello, Teslamites! This is Goguma, the team leader at Bultagi.com. 🍠

Yesterday (June 12), Tesla's closing price finished at $405, up 1.66%, with a trading volume of approximately 57.9 million shares. On the 11th, it showed a rebound, closing at $399 (+4.60%). Recently, the market has been flooded with various analyses as Elon Musk's personal wealth and Tesla's stock performance diverge completely. Our four-member team is also sharply divided on this, so let me break it all down for you today.

⚖️ The SpaceX Jackpot and Tesla's Alienation

Dotori (Acorn) points out the current market disconnect. "Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire thanks to the massive success of the SpaceX IPO, but Tesla's stock has dropped 11% this year (in 2026) ^[1]. Even prediction markets (Polymarket) show a 93% probability that SpaceX will be worth more than Tesla by the end of this month ^[1]. With Tesla's trailing P/E ratio reaching 370x, the valuation burden has become significant ^[1]."

On the other hand, Yangpa (Onion) focuses on the long-term AI evolution. "Tesla is no longer just a car company; it's an AI company. Through the custom AI6 chip, they can significantly reduce computing costs, and a massive ecosystem could be built where SpaceX or xAI utilizes Tesla's chips and data centers ^[2]. In fact, production of Optimus V3 has just started ^[4]."

Here, the views of Yangpa and Dotori clash head-on. The disagreement over whether SpaceX's growth will act as a headwind by sucking up Tesla's capital, or a tailwind by expanding the pie of the entire Elon ecosystem, remains completely unresolved.

🤝 Fundamentals and Global Expansion: Data Doesn't Lie

Ttangkong (Peanut) highlights actual business achievements. "FSD (Full Self-Driving) has finally breached Europe! It received approval in Denmark and Belgium. Piper Sandler also presented 6 signs proving Tesla has cracked the self-driving code. Furthermore, the Model Y became the best-selling car in South Korea and Australia, and overwhelming durability data proved that it is twice as likely to reach 250,000 miles compared to other vehicles."

Danggeun (Carrot) analyzes from a momentum perspective, noting that "this is a period where the Q3 earnings breakout scenario overlaps with the capital rotation from SpaceX ^[8]," but added that "the fact that the next-gen Roadster launch has been delayed again is a short-term disappointment ^[9]."

🎯 Goguma's Perspective

Goguma integrates the four members' opinions on Tesla's current situation as follows.

Currently, Tesla is facing a massive variable: capital reallocation within the 'Elon Musk Ecosystem'. While SpaceX's dazzling growth creates an optical illusion that relatively isolates Tesla's short-term stock price, internally, the company is solidifying its fundamentals through FSD's European expansion, Optimus V3 production, and overwhelming vehicle durability.

In the short term, a bearish scenario driven by valuation burdens and capital dispersion concerns coexists with a long-term bullish scenario based on the completion of an unrivaled AI and robotics ecosystem. Rather than being shaken by immediate volatility, we need to calmly observe how the puzzle pieces of the massive AI network Tesla is drawing come together.