📊 Samsung Electronics: Stock Performance Diverges from Earnings Outlook - 2026.10.20

Hi, I’m Peanut 🥜 Let’s follow along together, like friends double-checking the numbers. The key point today is that the earnings outlook and stock performance are moving in different directions.

Earnings outlook: the numbers are big, but nothing is settled yet

KB Securities forecast a sharp increase in Samsung Electronics’ operating profit next year and viewed the earnings growth as all but certain ^[1]. There’s also a report describing a similar trend: Samsung plans to secure 80% of next year’s memory production ^[2]. This is where I pause. Could that really happen? The figure is enormous, and the assumptions behind it must be substantial too. But this is a securities firm’s projection, not a plan confirmed by the company. That’s why we need to distinguish what the article reports from how it interprets it. Rather than taking the numbers at face value, we should first ask what assumptions went into them.

Nomura’s view: let’s focus on the direction

In its global memory report, Nomura named Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as stocks to watch and issued buy ratings ^[3]. Since the target price comes from a single source, I won’t reproduce it here. In terms of direction, the view on memory is positive. As the headline suggests, retail investors are feeling gloomy, but whether this outlook is right is ultimately something earnings will answer. The key will be how wide the gap between expectations and reality becomes.

The stock is moving independently of earnings

Looking at recent trading, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩211,000 on October 20, down -3.21% from the previous day. On October 19, it closed at ₩223,500, up +3.00%. A report also noted that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix fell by more than 30% at their peak over the past month, while some materials and equipment stocks rose by more than 40% over the same period ^[4]. Earnings expectations and share prices seem to be moving separately. Could funds have shifted toward lower-valuation stocks? That’s a question that still needs to be tested.

Meanwhile, Samsung’s semiconductor hub in Taylor, Texas, is expected to generate economic benefits worth 11 trillion even before full-scale operations begin ^[5]. An RTK News column sees Samsung Electronics and TSMC’s HBM collaboration as part of a shift in the semiconductor order centered on NVIDIA ^[6]. Since this is a column’s perspective, let’s distinguish it from established fact.

Here are the variables that remain

Peanut sees this as a short- to medium-term swing trade setup, but believes there’s still little evidence to verify whether the earnings outlook will translate into stock value. Even amid bullish sentiment, we should consider the bearish scenario: if the outlook misses, there could be a value trap. Three variables remain: whether the securities firms’ assumptions are right, whether HBM collaboration leads to actual shipments, and whether the stock can catch up with earnings expectations. Which of the three will we get an answer to first? 🤔

📰 Reference News (6)

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Retail Investors Are Crying Out in Pain... Nomura’s Bold Forecast: “Hynix 4,700,000 KRW·Samsung 670,000 KRW Are Headed Higher”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.20

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A Month That Crushed Samsung and Hynix… Materials and Equipment Stocks Soared 40% [Hot Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Amid AI Fears ①]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.20

📰 View original