⚖️ Tesla Between Flat Revenue and Growing Cash - 2026.10.22

Hi, it’s Goguma. Let’s take a calm look at things together again today. 🍠 The key point this time is a WSJ report that revenue stayed flat while cash increased ^[1]. Talk of a SpaceX merger is adding to the mix, splitting attention in several directions.

📊 Revenue Is Flat, but Cash Is Growing

The WSJ reported that Tesla’s revenue was flat, while cash flow increased ^[1]. It’s a bit like the speedometer staying put while the fuel gauge rises. There’s plenty to wonder about, but the article doesn’t explain why. So for now, I’ll stick to the fact that it “increased.” Seeking Alpha, in its earnings preview, asks whether this report will bring fireworks or mark a quiet stretch before a merger ^[4]. The answer is still outside the article, so to speak.

There’s also news from the analyst front. One report says revenue estimates were raised ahead of the third-quarter earnings announcement ^[3]. Looking just at the direction, expectations have edged up a little. But remember, this is that analyst’s calculation. You can’t just swap someone else’s calculator for your own. 🧮

⚖️ A Merger May Be Inevitable, but the Price Is Divisive

Reuters reported that Wall Street sees a Tesla-SpaceX merger as essentially inevitable ^[2]. But views on the merger price are split among analysts ^[2]. The disagreement hasn’t been neatly resolved. In the same article, the view that “the merger is happening either way” directly clashes with the view that “the price is the issue.” It feels like people on the same bus arguing about which stop to get off at. 🚌 There’s agreement on the direction, alongside distrust over the price.

🎯 There Are Bulls, and the Stock Is Rebounding

Yahoo Finance reported that Cathie Wood, known as a Tesla bull, offered an optimistic outlook ^[5]. I’ll leave out the target figure mentioned in the article. Forecasts are best viewed with the speaker attached. Looking at the stock numbers, the closing price on the 20th was $373.71, up +1.53%, and on the 21st it closed at $386.55, gaining +3.43%. The recent trend points to a rebound, but that’s not enough to be certain about what comes next.

🤝 Goguma’s Takeaway

Here’s how I’d sum up the views of four people. I won’t try to force them into one conclusion. The view that a merger is essentially inevitable, the disagreement over its price, the raised estimates, and the bullish outlook are all saying different things. In my view, the picture will become clearer if we first watch how the increase in cash flow connects to the debate over the merger price. But that’s just my opinion.

There are three variables left to watch: whether the reason for the cash increase becomes clear in the earnings report, where the merger price is set, and whether the higher estimates translate into actual numbers. I’ll come back to this when we have those answers. 🍠

📰 Reference News (5)