📊 Samsung SDI, Between Earnings Surprises and Slowing U.S. Demand - 2026.09.16

Hi, it’s Carrot, someone who genuinely cares about chart numbers. Samsung SDI stood out for earnings surprises in three consecutive quarters and order momentum, but there are also forecasts that local sales could slow faster due to reduced U.S. electric vehicle tax credits ^{[1] [4]}. It was a day when good catalysts and an uncomfortable variable overlapped on the same screen. Honestly, there are too many angles to judge this based on just one number. 📊

Earnings Surprise, But Where Are the Orders Coming From? 🎯

newsfc reported that Samsung SDI recorded an earnings surprise for three consecutive quarters, with order momentum taking market share from China coming into focus ^[1]. What matters here is less the expression “surprise” itself than the fact that earnings improvement and order momentum appeared together. However, this is a media report, not a confirmed medium- to long-term result from the company, so the actual figures and order progress need to be checked separately.

Mirae Asset Securities also forecast that Samsung SDI could continue improving its earnings in the second half, based on the expansion of its ESS business and a recovery in profitability for small batteries ^[2]. In other words, the key pillars seen by the securities market are broadening beyond electric vehicle batteries alone toward earnings contributions from ESS and small batteries. Still, this is only Mirae Asset Securities’ forecast. It should not be read as confirmed company results or plans.

ESS Order Expectations Are Strong, But They Must Be Distinguished from Confirmed Orders 🔋

Amid continued efforts to exclude Chinese-made equipment from the U.S. power grid and China’s ongoing battery capacity expansion, reports emerged that orders for ESS batteries from Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution are estimated to exceed two years’ worth based on current production capacity. Expectations for additional orders were also raised ^[3], helping explain why the market’s focus on Samsung SDI is shifting further from electric vehicles toward ESS.

But there is one key checkpoint here. An “estimated two years’ worth of orders” and confirmed orders disclosed by the company are not the same thing. There is an intermediate gap between estimates based on production capacity, actual revenue recognition, and profitability. The number alone looks unbelievable, but in chart terms, we are still closer to the stage of examining the gap between the candles and trading value.

There was also news on September 16 that three Korean battery makers are expected to compete again ahead of the government-led third bidding round for the ESS central contract market ^[5]. The materials do not confirm what result this bid will bring to Samsung SDI. So for now, we need to separate “the opportunity in the ESS market has grown” from “how much of it Samsung SDI has actually secured.”

The Chart Is Reflecting Expectations and Caution at the Same Time 📈

According to the latest price data provided, Samsung SDI’s closing price moved from ₩530,000 on September 8 to ₩574,000 on September 9, then closed at ₩542,000 on September 16. The change on September 16 was -0.91%, with trading volume at 283,935, while on September 15 it recorded ₩551,000, +3.77%. Based on recent closing prices, the area around ₩530,000 appeared to act as the bottom of the range, while supply was visible around ₩574,000. It’s genuinely range-bound, but it would be hard to call the range narrow.

The forecast that reduced U.S. electric vehicle tax credits could accelerate a slowdown in local EV sales is an opposing factor for electric vehicle battery demand ^[4]. On the other hand, ESS order expectations and the central contract market bidding are being discussed as new demand drivers ^{[3] [5]}. I think the right way to read Samsung SDI is “earnings confirmation is a positive, U.S. demand is a variable.” No all-in buying, no all-in selling—act only when support breaks. Ultimately, the remaining questions are how much ESS order expectations will be reflected in actual earnings and how much they can offset the slowdown in U.S. electric vehicle demand. ✨

📰 Reference News (5)

1

‘Three Consecutive Quarterly Surprises’ Samsung SDI, Order Momentum Taking ‘Chinese Market Share’ - newsfc.co.kr

newsfc.co.kr · 2026.09.16

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2

"Samsung SDI to Recover Earnings Through ESS and Small Batteries… Watch for Expanded Orders in North America and Europe" Mirae Asset Securities

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.16

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3

K-Battery ESS Benefits from U.S.-China Tensions… "Two Years of Orders Filled → Expectations for Additional Orders"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.15

📰 View original

4

U.S. Sales Slowdown to Accelerate as Trump Reduces EV Tax Credits; K-Battery Watches Midterm Election Sentiment

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.16

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5

Third ESS Central Contract Market Round Nears… K-Battery ‘Home-Field Showdown’

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.16

📰 View original