Kiwoom Securities, Variables Hidden Behind Strong Earnings Forecasts - 2026.07.25

Hi, it's Peanut, digging into the fundamentals. Despite expectations for strong Q2 earnings, Kiwoom Securities' stock price fell over 5% to close at ₩298,500 yesterday, which means we need to break down the numbers behind the scenes.

💼 Earnings Forecasts and Shareholder Returns: Are They Truly Perfect?

Wall Street expects Kiwoom Securities' Q2 operating profit to reach the 410 billion KRW level ^[1]. The trend of strengthening shareholder return policies through increased share buybacks and cancellations since last year is also receiving positive reviews ^[3]. However, seeing variables like concerns over Q3 earnings volatility mentioned alongside expectations for record-high results makes me ask whether it's possible to verify if the current strong performance will continue without wavering into the second half.

⚠️ Retail Dominance: Any Cracks?

One bearish scenario we need to address is the risk of retail capital flight. Since the Bank of Korea's recent base rate hikes, large brokerage firms have raised CMA yields, but Kiwoom Securities saw a relatively smaller increase in interest rates ^[2]. As retail CMA balances are growing during this period of market volatility, there is a need for caution as lower interest rate attractiveness could lead to capital outflows. Of course, the retirement pension side is cruising along, exceeding 65 billion KRW in the first month with a goal of 500 billion KRW within the year ^[4].

🛑 New Business Momentum and the Possibility of a Value Trap

News that the company is in contact with the virtual asset platform Bithumb is also attracting market attention ^[5]. Entering new businesses can help with long-term multiple expansion. However, if it does not lead to immediate, tangible financial results or cash flow, it could fall into a value trap. From a short-to-medium-term swing perspective, one must coldly weigh the actual contribution to earnings rather than approaching it based on vague expectations alone.

Considering the retail capital flight risk and second-half earnings volatility hidden behind flashy forecasts, I, Peanut, believe this is a phase where we should check defensive strength for the next quarter before looking at the immediate numbers. Let's keep tracking how the market reaction will diverge after the strong earnings announcement through the numbers.

📰 Reference News (5)

2

Individual CMA balances increase amidst volatile markets... Brokerages raise interest rates in unison - Sisa Journal e

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.25

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3

Mirae Asset Securities, 502.4 billion KRW scale share cancellation… strengthening shareholder return policy

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.24

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4

[Retirement Pension Nomad]④ Kiwoom Securities 65 billion in first month… 'Task' of 500 billion within the year - Nate

네이트 · 2026.07.24

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5

Separation of finance and industry opened after 9 years… Vitalizing the virtual asset market

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.24

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