📉 SDI Fundamental Check: Is the Turnaround Verifiable? - 2026.06.10

Hello. It's Peanut. How did everyone view today's market flow. Everyone seems excited that secondary batteries have bottomed out, but is that really the case. They say they are defending against the EV chasm with ESS orders, but it seems like the time to coldly punch the calculator to see if it's being proven by numbers.

💼 Fundamental Check: Profitability Slowdown and Financial Burden, Is it Verifiable?

According to a recent Hana Securities report, Samsung SDI's 2026 revenue is estimated at 15.701 trillion won, with an operating loss of 106 billion won ^[1]. The forecast says it will turn a profit only next year in 2027 with 18.715 trillion won in revenue and 1.246 trillion won in operating profit, but it's questionable whether this turnaround scenario will flow as planned.

Furthermore, there is news that bank borrowings have surged by 900 billion won amid the urgent need for ESS transition ^[2]. Of course, they are taking steps for US tariff refunds to ease the Q1 deficit burden, and if realized, we could expect a performance improvement effect of around 100 billion won ^[6]. However, considering the 900 billion won increase in borrowings, careful verification is needed on whether this level of cash inflow can fully alleviate the financial burden. Approaching with vague turnaround expectations requires caution, leaving the possibility of a value trap open.

⚠️ Short-term Supply and Demand Burden: Overhang Risk and Institutional Exit

There are also variables waiting on the supply and demand side that must be addressed. Right away on the 15th, the employee stock ownership association shares that were tied up in a 1-year lock-up are scheduled to be released to the market ^[3]. Employees who participated in last year's capital increase are reportedly sitting on nearly triple the valuation gains due to the stock price rise, and if this volume hits the market all at once, there is a risk it will act as short-term downward pressure ^[4].

Looking at today's (10th) closing price, it finished down 3.59% from the previous day at 496,500 won ^[5]. With a trading volume of 480,655 shares, foreigners net bought 8.98 billion won, but institutions net sold 22.39 billion won, raising profit-taking pressure. Adding to this, the fact that the largest shareholder family's stake also slightly decreased by 1,517 shares won't be very welcome news for investor sentiment ^[7].

📉 Bearish Scenario: A Candidate for Profit-Taking Trim?

Some in the market are trying to float a bullish atmosphere based on the momentum of increased ESS shipments in the second half and US tariff refunds. However, from the perspective of an analyst maintaining a short-to-medium term swing view, when grouping the operating loss forecast, massive increase in borrowings, and the imminent employee stock overhang risk, a bearish scenario must be touched upon at least once.

It is time to ask back whether the current valuation has pulled in the distant future of a 2027 turnaround too early. Peanut sees it as reasonable to manage risk by classifying it as a candidate for a profit-taking trim rather than an unreasonable overweighting in the current section of uncertainty.

Always trust the numbers, and I hope you don't lose your conservative view. I will return with cold fundamental analysis next time.

📰 Reference News (7)

1

Hana Securities: "Secondary Batteries, Focus on Demand Growth Over Profitability... Maintain 'Overweight'"

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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2

Samsung Hosts 'AX Bootcamp' for 50 Executives... AI Training for All 280,000 Employees

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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3

Samsung SDI Also Pays 100M+ KRW Bonuses... Employee Stock Hits 3x Jackpot [30-Sec Commute Economy]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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4

Samsung SDI Also Pays 100M+ KRW Bonuses... Employee Stock Hits 3x Jackpot [30-Sec Commute Economy] - The Korea Economic Daily

한국경제 · 2026.06.10

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5

[Seoul Data Lab] Top 20 Most Searched Stocks Right After Market Close

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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6

Trump to 'Swallow' Hundreds of Billions of Won from Korean Firms? Why His "No Tariff Refunds" Stance Works [Hot Issue]

네이버뉴스 · 2026.06.10

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7

Samsung SDI's Largest Shareholders Slightly Reduce Holdings... Stake Maintained at 19.82% - Nate

네이트 · 2026.06.10

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