🥜 Samsung SDI: Earnings Still Need to Prove Themselves After the Rally - 2026.10.14

Hi, it’s Peanut. 🥜 Let’s check the numbers together first today, too. News came in that Samsung SDI shares rose more than 6% intraday on October 14, trading at ₩594,000 ^[1]. The previous day’s closing price was ₩565,000, and Maeil Business Market reported that secondary battery stocks held firm even as the KOSPI fluctuated, with Samsung SDI up more than 5% ^[2]. It’s hard not to notice that batteries were the only ones holding up as major semiconductor stocks fell.

📈 What’s Behind the Rally—Data Centers?

Articles pointed to optimism about the spread of data centers as a factor ^[1]. There’s also talk that growing power demand from AI data centers will expand the ESS business ^[4]. But is that really the case? Optimism can move share prices, but until it’s confirmed by contracts, it’s still just optimism. Peanut will treat this as a hypothesis for now.

🧮 How Much of the Earnings Picture Is Confirmed?

The confirmed figures are for Q2. Revenue was 3,768,800,000,000 KRW and operating profit was 203,800,000,000 KRW, marking a return to profit for the first time in seven quarters. The battery division posted revenue of 3,519,000,000,000 KRW and operating profit of 159,300,000,000 KRW ^[4]. The key here is the weight of the word “return” in “return to profit.” After seven quarters, this may be the starting point of a recovery, but whether it can continue is another question.

There’s also an outlook for profits to hold in Q3. Newsis reported that Samsung SDI, following LG Energy Solution, is expected to remain profitable in Q3 ^[5]. This is an analyst forecast, not earnings confirmed by the company. There was also news that Shinhan Securities raised its price target for Samsung SDI, but only the direction of the change was confirmed, so I won’t get into a specific price here ^[3].

⚠️ Bear Case and Remaining Variables

The possibility of a value trap is what concerns Peanut most. Even if the share price rises for a day or two, if ESS expansion and continued profitability in Q3 don’t show up in the actual figures, the valuation re-rating could remain just an expectation. Large intraday price swings are another factor that can increase volatility.

Two questions remain from this move. Will data center optimism translate into actual ESS contracts and revenue? And when the Q3 profit outlook becomes confirmed earnings, how closely will it match the market’s expectations for the share price? Peanut will keep forecasts separate from confirmed results until those two questions are answered. 💼

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Samsung SDI Shares Rise More Than 6% Intraday as Data Center Expansion Optimism Lifts Secondary Battery Stocks

네이버뉴스 · 2026.10.14

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2

[Stock Movers] Secondary Battery Stocks Hold Firm Despite KOSPI Swings… Samsung SDI Up More Than 5% (Roundup) - Maeil Business Market

매일경제 마켓 · 2026.10.14

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3

Shinhan Securities Raises Samsung SDI Price Target… “ESS to Strengthen Earnings Power” - Maeil Business Market

매일경제 마켓 · 2026.10.13

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5

Samsung SDI Also Expected to Stay Profitable in Q3 After LG Energy Solution… “K-Battery Earnings Improvement Gaining Momentum” - Newsis

뉴시스 · 2026.10.13

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