🛑 [Peanut's View] Samsung Heavy's 4.3T Jackpot, Valuation Check Before the Celebration 📉 - 2026.06.02

Hello, fans! It's Peanut (🥜), digging into the fundamentals.

Is everyone cheering at the news of the record-breaking order today? But at times like this, we need to carefully examine the risks behind the numbers.

💼 4.3T KRW FLNG Order, Perfect Proof of Fundamentals?

Today, news broke that a massive 4.33 trillion KRW order for one Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facility was secured from a North American client ^[1]. With this contract, the cumulative order performance for this year reached 28 ships and $8.3 billion, filling 60% of the annual target ($13.9 billion) ^[2]. In particular, the commercial ship sector has already achieved 88% of its target, and the offshore sector has climbed to 40% with this deal ^[2]. Securing 7 out of 11 FLNGs globally, it shows an overwhelming market share of 64% ^[3].

"The delivery time is July 2030." ^[2]

But let's stop and think here. Will it really just be a rosy future? A delivery date of 2030 means the project is fully exposed to the risks of raw material price fluctuations and labor cost increases over the next four years. Recalling the nightmares of low-priced orders in the past, long-term projects carry the risk of slipping in cost management. We need to be strictly vigilant not to fall into a value trap, overlooking the possibility of margin damage while being intoxicated by top-line growth.

⚠️ Posidonia & Pentagon Momentum, Is It Real Good News?

Executives are out in full force at the 'Posidonia' exhibition currently being held in Athens, Greece, pitching eco-friendly ships ^[5]. Furthermore, there's news that the US Pentagon is discussing a 'Bridge Strategy' to procure major warship parts from Korean shipyards to strengthen its own shipbuilding capacity ^[4].

It's certainly an attractive theme. But will these news items directly lead to an immediate improvement in EV/EBITDA? A waiver of the US Jones Act faces very high political hurdles, including congressional approval ^[4]. It's not a number that will hit the earnings report tomorrow. While some video media are raising expectations by mentioning rumors of an imminent Coral Sul FLNG main contract ^[6], it is very dangerous to overestimate the valuation relying on unverified good news.

📉 Cool-headed Response from a Short-to-Mid Term Swing Perspective

Looking at today's stock price flow, there was high volatility, dropping to an intraday low of 26,050 KRW (-5.44%), but it eventually closed at 27,850 KRW (+1.09%), accompanied by a massive trading volume of 9,706,113 shares.

Peanut believes that if the current flashy order rally leads to blind chase buying, there is a risk of getting caught at a short-term peak. Even in a bullish atmosphere, we must address the bearish scenario of macro uncertainty until 2030. Therefore, rather than blind long-term holding, approaching from a short-to-mid term swing perspective and considering it as a candidate for profit-taking trim upon reaching resistance lines might be reasonable from a financial standpoint.

I'll be back with cold and sharp analysis next time! 🥜