📉 Samsung SDI, a Validation Phase Between ESS Orders and Earnings Expectations - 2026.09.15

Hi, it’s Peanut. The key issue surrounding Samsung SDI is whether the pace at which ESS orders are accumulating will really align with the pace at which they are reflected in earnings. Mirae Asset Securities expects Samsung SDI to record earnings surprises for three consecutive quarters and presented a target price ^[2]. However, this is a brokerage forecast, not earnings confirmed by the company. This is a stage where the numbers need to be checked carefully, step by step.

Earnings Expectations Are Still Only on the Forecast Sheet 💼

Mirae Asset Securities’ rationale is that Samsung SDI’s earnings improvement trend could continue. NH Investment & Securities also maintained its Buy recommendation and raised its target price, assessing that the company’s competitiveness in battery orders is strengthening ^[4]. Both reports are favorable in tone, but in common, they differ from confirmed earnings or order disclosures announced by the company.

The key question here is simple. When will stronger order competitiveness translate into improved revenue and profit, and how much cost pressure will remain in the process? Even a positive report must be verified again against the income statement.

The ESS Order Backlog Is Clearly a New Variable ⚡

According to the battery industry and brokerage firms on September 15, Samsung SDI’s order backlog for ESS batteries is estimated to exceed two years based on North American production capacity ^[1]. Expectations for additional orders have also emerged on positive developments related to the US and China. If this is accurate, ESS could stand out further as a pillar filling the gap in Samsung SDI’s business amid slowing electric vehicle demand.

However, profitability cannot be calculated from the phrase “two years’ worth” alone. Contract terms, product mix, utilization rates, and costs must be disclosed together before the backlog can be assigned meaning beyond revenue. An order backlog is an order book, while profit is a figure verified separately on the manufacturing floor. The possibility of a value trap also needs to be watched here.

Supply Volumes and Competitiveness: The Numbers Diverge 📊

In the ESS order competition, Samsung SDI secured more than 75% of the first-round volume, while SK On took 50.3% of the second-round volume. Based on the cumulative first- and second-round figures, Samsung SDI’s supply volume was tallied at 629MW, or 55.8% of the total ^[3]. More important than saying it led in one competition is the fact that the share trend differed by round.

This trend shows both that Samsung SDI is considered competitive in the ESS market and that orders do not automatically follow in this market. The differing results between the first and second rounds mean variables such as pricing, production capacity, safety, and customer-specific conditions can continue to change. Is that really the case? It is still too early to view the competitive landscape as fixed based only on cumulative market share.

Let’s Also Keep the Bearish Scenario in View 🛑

From a short- to medium-term swing perspective, expectations for an earnings surprise and the ESS order backlog may attract attention, but a bearish scenario remains. If orders are slow to turn into actual shipments and profits, or if cost pressures increase, a gap could emerge between expectations and earnings. If order news runs ahead while the income statement fails to follow, it could become a value trap accompanied by heavier valuation pressure.

Peanut views Samsung SDI as a stock whose evaluation will continue only if expanding ESS orders and earnings confirmation move together. There is one question left now. How clearly will the North American ESS order backlog show up as revenue and profit in actual quarterly earnings?

📰 Reference News (4)

1

“LG Energy Solution·Samsung SDI ESS battery orders fill two years’ worth”… Additional expectations also gently rise on US-China tailwinds

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.15

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2

[Report Briefing] Samsung SDI, 'Three Consecutive Quarters of Surprises Expected,' Target Price 1,000,000 KRW - Mirae Asset Securities - Newspim

뉴스핌 · 2026.09.15

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3

Three Battery Makers Compete for ESS Orders… Domestic Production and Safety Face Off - Viewers

네이버뉴스 · 2026.09.14

📰 View original