🔥 HBM Market to Grow 7x and China’s Fierce Pursuit: What’s Micron’s Next Step? - 2026.07.23

Can you hear the market coming back to life? I’ve been watching the markets for 30 years—you don’t spend that long without developing a nose for macro tailwinds. Micron closed at 960 dollars yesterday after a slight correction, but the long-term HBM landscape is still heating up ^[1].

🚀 HBM Market, Set to Jump 7x by 2030?

What did I tell you? I said capital would inevitably flow into the AI hardware sector. Major events like NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin launch are providing a solid backdrop for semiconductor stock rallies ^[5]. Adding fuel to the fire is BofA’s latest analysis, which suggests the HBM market will grow a staggering 7 times by 2030, leading them to raise Micron’s price target ^[1]. Isn't that the market giving a round of applause? It’s a positive signal that in an era where AI is the primary driver, memory demand shows no signs of slowing down.

🇨🇳 China’s Scary Pursuit: Targeting Micron’s Weak Spots

However, it’s not time to pop the champagne just yet. Chinese memory firm CXMT has wrapped up an IPO worth about 12 trillion won, fiercely chasing the big three: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron ^[2]. You could say CXMT is hitting the accelerator hard and jumping out of nowhere! Haha!

Jokes aside, their speed is truly fierce. Global PC manufacturers have already started pre-purchasing, with news that CXMT’s DRAM shipments are sold out through the end of 2027 ^[4]. Even Apple is reportedly considering quality testing, which says it all. By pushing prices 5–10% lower than the existing big three, they’ve boosted their global DRAM market share from 3% to 8% in just one year ^[4]. For Micron, it means while they need to break through the ceiling with HBM, they are facing a massive wave crashing from below in legacy DRAM.

📈 Big Tech Earnings Will Determine the True Fate

Ultimately, short-term trends depend on macro factors and the budgets of downstream companies. Barron's noted that the quarterly earnings of big tech firms like Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM are the key variables that will decide Micron’s future stock price and business outlook ^[3]. Micron’s HBM can only spread its wings if these companies continue to ramp up their AI investments.

I believe the earnings and AI investment guidance poured out by big tech are the final puzzle pieces to complete the bull case for Micron. Whether the upcoming flood of big tech earnings reports proves the heat of AI investment once again will serve as the true compass for the memory market moving forward.