📊 TSMC: Checking the Numbers on Rare Earth Responses and the HBM 3nm Variable - 2026.10.24

Hi, I’m Peanut. Think of me as having a numbers-savvy friend beside me to double-check the figures. 🥜 The key issues this time are how TSMC might avoid China-related rare earth risks and reports that 3nm will be used for an HBM base die.

📉 Earnings Are Good, So Why Is the Stock Moving the Other Way?

The closing price on October 22 was $412.35, with a change of -4.52%. The next day, the 23rd, it rebounded +1.32% to $417.78. Yet the headline says the stock fell despite record profits ^[5]. Is that really the case? If profits are at a record high, why did the stock drop? The headline alone doesn’t explain what the market is worried about. Peanut thinks this reaction may reflect a focus on what comes next, rather than on past numbers.

🛑 Rare Earth Risks: The Response Is Still at an Early Stage

Newsis reported that TSMC is exploring the introduction of motors that do not use rare earth magnets in response to China’s rare earth export controls ^[2]. Yonhap viewed these discussions as still being at an early stage ^[3], while Reuters exclusively reported, citing multiple sources, that the company is also looking for alternatives for factory equipment ^[1]. However, the information available does not specify a concrete timeline or scale for adoption. So Peanut won’t attach a number to this. Considering a measure and having a confirmed plan are two very different things.

💼 HBM Base Dies and 3nm: The Landscape Is Changing

A video report says NVIDIA asked for TSMC’s 3nm process for the base die of custom HBM ^[6]. NVIDIA would handle the design and TSMC the manufacturing, and a process change would require design adjustments and revalidation ^[6]. One interpretation is that this adds a new condition to Samsung’s strategy of offering DRAM, foundry, and packaging together—but that is an interpretation based on reporting, not a confirmed contract detail.

Intel comes up too. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed that while Intel is making progress in transistor implementation, TSMC holds the keys to yield and scaling up ^[4]. This should be treated only as the outlet’s analysis, not the company’s official position.

⚠️ Let’s Also Consider the Bear Case

Even if the trend looks bullish, if risk responses are still at an early stage, validating alternative components and equipment could take a long time. In the meantime, even if the valuation looks cheap, it’s hard to rule out the possibility of a value trap. Peanut thinks this may be a more important variable than the immediate earnings figures. Rather than getting swept up in the short-term trend, it seems better to take a medium-term view and track how supply chain conditions change.

There are three questions left: Will the rare earth response turn into a concrete timeline? What design adjustments might come with a process shift for the HBM base die? And will the yield gap discussed in the Intel analysis show up in the numbers? Let’s check the figures together again when verifiable data becomes available. 🔍

📰 Reference News (5)

3

"TSMC seeks alternative components to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths… discussions at an early stage" - Yonhap News

연합뉴스 · 2026.10.23

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5

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Posted Record Profit and the Stock Still Fell. Here's What the Market Is Worried About. - The Motley Fool

The Motley Fool · 2026.10.23

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

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YouTube

Samsung’s Trump Card… but NVIDIA Puts on the Brakes | The Key Layer from TSMC? Report Says It Wants a 3nm Base Die | NVIDIA Used to Order Memory—Now It Wants to Decide How It’s Made

▶안될공학 - IT 테크 신기술·2026.10.21