⚠️ SK Hynix: US equipment restrictions reach all the way to factory plans - 2026.11.04

Hi, I’m Peanut. I love crunching the numbers, so I’ve got them spread out in front of me again today. 🥜 The key point in today’s story is that US restrictions are affecting plans for both Chinese factories and a US factory at the same time.

📉 What happened

Reuters reported on the 3rd (local time) that the US Department of Commerce had put on hold export permits for US-made semiconductor manufacturing equipment needed to expand SK Hynix’s Chinese factory ^[1]. Citing sources, Reuters also reported that plans for a semiconductor factory in New York had hit snags due to US restrictions related to China ^[2]. Korean media also noted that discussions on the matter are underway ^[3].

We should also look at the share price. After falling -4.46% in the previous trading session, it closed today at ₩1,393,000, down -0.36%.

⚠️ Why is New York coming into the picture too?

What’s interesting is that the equipment issue in China is spilling over into investment plans in the US. Reports say US government restrictions are also affecting investment plans in the country ^[4]. One article said a red light had also appeared over the supply of capital for a new NAND flash factory investment in New York ^[5]. Large-scale facility investments at home and abroad, as well as factors such as US semiconductor tax incentives, were also cited as sources of pressure ^[5].

In short, this looks less like a problem at a single factory and more like a question of who controls the capital lifeline for facility investment as a whole, and how. Is that really the case? The reports so far don’t establish how much this pressure will delay investment timelines.

💼 Looking at valuation

The market’s views are also divided. iM Securities said SK Hynix’s market capitalization could be explained by its HBM business alone, calling the stock excessively undervalued ^[6]. That’s a securities firm’s analysis, not a fact confirmed by the company. Peanut wants to start by asking how verifiable the argument is that one pillar, HBM, can explain the entire valuation.

🛑 Peanut’s bearish scenario

Even when the bullish case is making headlines, it’s worth considering the bearish scenario too. If equipment deliveries take longer and the US factory schedule is pushed back as well, the argument that HBM alone justifies the valuation could carry the risk of becoming a value trap. This isn’t a forecast, but a conditional scenario. Peanut views this as a short- to medium-term swing trade, while putting more weight on checking whether the bearish scenario actually comes to pass.

Open questions

How quickly the permit hold is lifted, how the New York investment schedule is adjusted, and how much the valuation argument relies on HBM as its sole pillar. The reports don’t yet answer whether these three factors will converge in that way.

📰 Reference News (6)

1

“US Commerce Department puts export permits for US-made equipment bound for SK Hynix’s Chinese factory on hold”

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.04

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3

US puts equipment exports to SK Hynix’s Chinese factory on hold... “Discussions underway” - ZDNet Korea

지디넷코리아 · 2026.11.04

📰 View original

4

‘They told it to build a factory in the US’… SK Hynix held back by US restrictions

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.04

📰 View original

5

Solidigm IPO paused and China expansion stalled… SK Hynix’s US investment

네이버뉴스 · 2026.11.04

📰 View original