📊 Reasons Behind Korea Financial Group's Retreat from Lotte Insurance Acquisition Amid Securities Boom - 2026.07.19

Expectations for a valuation re-rating of Korea Financial Group are rising as the securities market boom coincides with rapid growth in the ETF business ^[1]. Investors anticipate that the group's value will be re-evaluated alongside improved performance at its key subsidiary, Korea Investment & Securities (KIS), providing a structural basis for interpreting current stock price volatility ^[1].

Brokerage Earnings Consensus and Market Environment

The consensus for the combined operating profit of Korea's top five major securities firms for Q2 this year on a consolidated basis was recorded at 5.1278 trillion won ^[2]. This serves as a key indicator for understanding quarterly earnings forecasts for major brokers, including Korea Financial Group, and aligns with estimates that the combined net profit forecast for the top five brokers in Q2 will increase by 102% year-on-year due to a surge in stock market trading volume ^[3]. In particular, Korea Financial Group (KIS) is included as one of the major brokers contributing to this positive earnings trend. The forecast that the Q2 results of Korea's Big 5 brokers will approach 5 trillion won, driven by increased stock trading volumes due to market vitality, suggests strong performance in the brokerage and investment banking (IB) sectors of key subsidiaries like KIS ^[4].

Shift in M&A Strategy: Retreat from Lotte Insurance Acquisition

Meanwhile, as Korea Investment & Financial Group, a leading candidate in the Lotte Insurance acquisition battle, has effectively stepped back, the likelihood of Shinhan Financial Group being selected as the priority negotiation partner has increased ^[5]. Korea Investment & Financial Group was initially expected to form a two-way race with Shinhan Financial Group, but recent moves regarding the acquisition suggest a step back, indicating a restructuring of the group's M&A strategy in terms of strengthening non-banking competitiveness ^[5]. While this strategic retreat may act as a variable for short-term market expectations, a new interpretation is needed from the perspective of medium- to long-term capital efficiency.

Venture Investment and Accelerator Activities

Korea Investment Accelerator (KIA), under Korea Financial Group, signed a memorandum of understanding with Oregon UAS Accelerator to support the US entry of domestic defense and drone startups ^[6]. Announced on the 18th, this agreement is part of Korea Investment & Financial Group's venture investment and accelerator activities aimed at helping domestic startups enter global markets ^[6]. The two organizations plan to actively cooperate to build local networks and enhance global competitiveness for promising domestic startups, a move evaluated as significant for securing the group's future growth drivers ^[7].

Stock Price Trends and Supply/Demand Analysis

Recently, the stock price showed volatility, closing at 229,000 won with a change of -2.55% as of July 17, 2026. On July 15, it rose to a closing price of 235,000 won with a change of +8.54%, but then declined on the 16th and 17th, appearing to enter a correction phase. Foreign net buying saw a large purchase of +16.1 billion won on July 15, but decreased to +4.46 billion won on the 16th. Institutional net buying switched to net selling, moving from +5.94 billion won on July 13 to -5.13 billion won on the 14th and -3.98 billion won on the 16th, suggesting uncertainty in supply and demand.

Acorn believes that the strong performance of the core securities business, the restructuring of M&A strategy, and the expansion of venture investments will have a complex impact on the medium- to long-term valuation of Korea Financial Group. In particular, while the retreat from the Lotte Insurance acquisition battle could be a factor dampening short-term sentiment, it is appropriate to approach this from a structural perspective, given that the upward trend in brokerage earnings consensus may offset it.

📰 Reference News (7)

1

Securities Boom and ETF Surge... Expectations Rise for Korea Financial Group's Valuation Re-rating - Pinpoint News

핀포인트뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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2

Q2 Soared to '9,000 Pi'... Top 5 Brokers' Operating Profit Forecast at 5 Trillion Won

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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3

Market Shakes but Brokers Are 'Thrilled'... Trading Volume Surges

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.18

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4

Amid Market Boom

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.18

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5

Shinhan Financial Secures Lotte Insurance... Strengthening Non-Banking Competitiveness

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.17

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6

KIA Signs MOU with Oregon UAS AC

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.18

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7

KIA Partners with US Oregon UAS Accelerator... Supporting US Entry for K-Defense and Drone Startups

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.16

📰 View original