📉 SK hynix, 3D DRAM Expectations and Valuation Check - 2026.09.09

Hi, it’s Peanut. SK hynix’s announcement that it plans to use a foundry process for 3D DRAM has brought its strong share-price momentum and technology strategy into focus at the same time. The company’s next-generation memory direction has been newly confirmed, but when this change will translate into earnings is still a separate question. Could it really happen? We need to look at the numbers and execution stages separately. 📉

First, Confirm the Share-Price Heat with Numbers

SK hynix closed at ₩1,858,000 on September 9, moving +3.63% from the previous day, with trading volume at 3,234,402. Based on the reference price data, the closing price rose for three consecutive trading days from September 7, and September 7 also saw a major +8.26% move. YTN reported that SK hynix broke through 1,800,000 KRW that day ^[3].

The market backdrop was also favorable. Reports said the KOSPI reclaimed the 7000 level, while buying spread beyond semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment to secondary batteries, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and optical communications ^[2]. However, the strength of the index and themes does not immediately prove an improvement in SK hynix’s earnings. We need to distinguish whether this is a period in which the share price is running ahead and profits will follow, or one in which expectations are moving ahead of earnings.

3D DRAM, the Core of the Technology News

SK hynix announced plans to use a foundry process for 3D DRAM ^[1]. This is not simply about adding a new product name; it concerns the development and process strategy for next-generation memory. The new point is that the company is considering not only conventional memory processes but also the possibility of using foundry processes.

What matters here is separating the ‘plan’ from the ‘results.’ The material did not provide figures for the mass-production timeline, yield, investment scale, or profitability. So there is still a validation gap between confirming the technology direction and concluding that it has contributed to earnings. As processes become more complex, costs and execution difficulty must also be considered, but the current material does not allow us to calculate those values. A model without numbers to check may look impressive, but it is not yet a model.

Valuation Checks Matter Even More in a Strong Market ⚠️

The market has begun interpreting the semiconductor cycle as having changed structurally, and SK hynix’s share price also appears to be rapidly reflecting those expectations ^[2]. However, the available material alone does not allow us to calculate earnings forecasts, earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, or price-to-book ratios. Nor is it easy to say that valuation pressure has been resolved simply because the price has moved.

Peanut sees the current phase as a point where technology expectations and valuation validation are competing. For short- to medium-term swings, what seems more important is not whether the market mood continues to provide support, but whether the 3D DRAM strategy connects to actual development progress and earnings figures. Conversely, if the technology plan fails to lead to concrete results or expectations are exhausted first, the possibility of a value trap remains. The stronger the market, the more ignoring this bearish scenario means looking at only half of the calculation sheet.

The Next Validation Point Is Execution

The new element in this news is the company’s indication that it may use a foundry process for 3D DRAM ^[1]. At the same time, the market is reflecting the KOSPI 7000 level and expectations of a change in the semiconductor cycle in the share price ^[2]. The two trends are moving in the same direction, but the process by which the technology announcement translates into actual sales and earnings has not yet been disclosed.

Ultimately, there is one question left. When, and through what development achievements and profitability indicators, will the 3D DRAM process strategy be verified? Whether expectations of a structural market shift continue to align with actual earnings figures remains the next variable to validate.