📈 TSMC, a Showdown Between Foundry Dominance and 2nm Expansion - 2026.09.10

Well, well~ Onion’s here. The key news is that TSMC’s second-quarter foundry market share reached an all-time high of 72.5% ^[1]. Global foundry revenue also rose 11.5% from the previous quarter, while the revenue gap between TSMC and Samsung reportedly widened further ^[2]. It looks like the market is growing while the leader’s share is growing at the same time. When the market applauds, isn’t this the picture it wants to see~ 📈

The market grew, but the leader took an even bigger share

The important point in this trend isn’t simply that foundry conditions improved. It’s that TSMC’s share set a new record as total market revenue increased ^{[1] [2]}. The pie got bigger, and the largest plate grew even larger. When the plate grows, the ladle gets busier too.

In my view, the market’s attention may now shift from ‘Is there demand?’ to ‘Which company can actually turn that demand into production?’ However, the article did not provide figures for production capacity or profitability. So it is too early to directly conclude that the record share will lead to earnings or stock-price gains; it is more appropriate to view it as an industry indicator showing that TSMC’s leading position has strengthened.

3nm is about revenue share, while 2nm hinges on applications 🔥

For 3nm, forecasts suggest that TSMC’s revenue share could exceed 30% as production expands. However, this should be viewed separately from confirmed company figures, since it was presented as an outside forecast rather than a number finalized by the company ^[3]. Even if a number looks attractive, a forecast is still a forecast; it does not carry the same weight as a company announcement.

With 2nm, the emergence of an actual application stands out. Reports say Celero is targeting the AI data transmission market using TSMC’s 2nm chips ^[4]. This single case cannot determine overall 2nm demand, but it is meaningful as an example of advanced processes connecting with AI-related data processing. With the forecast for a higher 3nm revenue share and the 2nm application case appearing together, there is now material to check whether the process-generation shift is moving beyond a simple technology announcement.

Long-term infrastructure expands to photomasks too ☕

TSMC is reportedly planning to build a 12-inch photomask pilot production line by 2031 ^[5]. Photomasks are part of the infrastructure required in semiconductor manufacturing, so this news can be read not merely as an expansion of wafer production lines, but as a move to broaden the long-term manufacturing base.

Still, 2031 is quite far away. Rather than a change that will immediately appear in quarterly earnings, it looks more like a plan to prepare the manufacturing ecosystem in advance to support advanced-process expansion. The schedule for constructing the actual pilot line and whether it will connect to mass production will need to be confirmed, and the gap between planning and execution is also a variable. This isn’t ‘photomask turning into the Potomac River’; it’s a story about laying the foundation for process competition. Even a dad joke needs infrastructure to stand up.

Questions remain despite the bullish picture 🚀

From an aggressive investor’s perspective, the record market share, forecast expansion in the 3nm share, 2nm application case, and long-term infrastructure plan all point in the same direction. They clearly support a bullish scenario, highlighting both foundry leadership and the transition to advanced processes. Onion sees the connection between market share and advanced processes as the core of the bullish scenario.

But three points still need to be checked. The forecast for a 3nm revenue share above 30% comes from an outside source ^[3], and the 2nm case concerns the application by a specific company ^[4]. In addition, the photomask pilot-line plan is a long-term schedule, so the process must still proceed from actual construction to mass production ^[5]. Ultimately, the next question comes down to one thing: How far will the record market share translate into actual revenue growth from advanced processes and execution in production?

📰 Reference News (5)

2

Global foundry revenue up 11.5% in Q2…gap between TSMC and Samsung widens - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.09.09

📰 View original

3

[NNA] TSMC expands 3nm production…revenue share expected to surpass 30% - Aju Economy

아주경제 · 2026.09.09

📰 View original

4

Celero targets AI data transmission market with TSMC 2nm chips - Pinpoint News

핀포인트뉴스 · 2026.09.09

📰 View original

5

TSMC to build 12-inch photomask pilot production line by 2031 - Yonhap News, Korean Ethnic Center

연합뉴스 한민족센터 · 2026.09.09

📰 View original