🥜 IBM: Questions Between Undervaluation Reports and Options Volatility - 2026.10.19

Hi, it’s Peanut. 🥜 Today’s IBM news feels like a clash between “it looks cheap” and “is it really?”—so let’s check the numbers together.

📉 Undervaluation reports: What’s the evidence?

A report said the stock may be undervalued ^[2]. Another outlet said it examined whether IBM is undervalued or trading above fair value ^[3]. Here’s where I pause first: Is this undervaluation claim verifiable? The summaries don’t spell out the assumptions behind it. So it’s best to treat this as a third-party claim—not a fact confirmed by the company or my own conclusion. I won’t repeat a specific percentage that appears in only one source, since there’s a higher risk it could be an error.

💼 What is the options market watching?

Looking at the recent trend, the stock rose from its October 8 closing price of $226.61 to its October 15 close of $234.12, then slipped -0.85% to $232.14 on October 16. Meanwhile, Benzinga reported that the options market is watching for volatility moves after earnings ^[1]. I read that as attention focused on the size of the move, not its direction. But that’s a report on what the options market is watching, not confirmation of how earnings will turn out. That’s exactly the point that’s easy to confuse.

⚠️ On the business side: Is the mainframe still alive?

At Hot Chips 2026, IBM unveiled its next-generation Z processor, which the video identified as Telum 3 ^[6]. It described features including dual-ISA cores that switch between z/Architecture and Armv9.3 at the thread level, a design based on Samsung’s 2nm process, and an on-chip DPU. The video claims this chip is the fastest Arm chip, but that’s only the video’s claim—not something verified by benchmarks. The technology is interesting, but the materials provided don’t tell us whether this new product will translate into actual business results. I think what matters more is whether that link can be verified.

🛑 Changes in institutional holdings and the bearish scenario

There’s mixed news from institutions, too. MarketBeat reported that Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC sold some of its IBM shares ^[4], and there was also news that Switzerland’s Banque Pictet & Cie SA sold shares ^[5]. The materials don’t include details such as the reasons for the sales or their size, so we can’t conclude from this that the company is in trouble—or that the stock has bottomed. Even if bullish arguments seem plentiful, if the undervaluation claim is wrong, a price that looks cheap now could turn into a value trap. If earnings or business performance fall short of expectations, the undervaluation thesis could also come under pressure. I think this caveat is especially important for anyone viewing the stock as a short- to medium-term swing trade. At this stage, Peanut thinks we need to first check whether the undervaluation claim holds up against the actual numbers.

So here’s the next question: Will the options market’s interest in volatility after earnings lead to actual numbers, or will it end with talk?

📰 Reference News (5)

1

Calm Before the Storm for IBM Stock? Options Market Eyes Volatility Move After Earnings - Benzinga

Benzinga · 2026.10.18

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2

IBM (IBM) Stock May Be 15% Undervalued As Quantum Progress Draws Focus - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · 2026.10.17

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

6

YouTube

The Fastest Arm CPU Is... An IBM Mainframe?

▶TechTechPotato·2026.10.16