📊 TSMC, 1-Nanometer Roadmap and the Texas Land Grab - 2026.11.04

Well now, Onion is here! In 30 years of watching the markets, I’ve seen days like this many times—the kind when the big picture starts shifting little by little near the bottom. 🧅

The 1-Nanometer Roadmap Takes Center Stage

The biggest news in this round is, of course, the process roadmap. TSMC has settled on a direction to pursue test production of 1-nanometer semiconductors in 2029, and the Taiwanese government’s site plan has also been made official ^[1]. 2029 is still a long way off, but the fact that the process roadmap is being discussed alongside site plans signals how far preparations have come. There we go—the future is finally getting grounded in reality.

Taiwan Has Shut the Back Door

The geopolitical angle gets even more interesting. Reports say Taiwan has elevated export controls from administrative notices to law, aiming to block China’s backdoor routes through the semiconductor supply chain—and closed a back door that had been open for 12 years ^[7]. From a macro perspective, supply chain rules are getting more firmly enforced, which could change how the playing field is structured. But this is reporting on Taiwan’s measures, and no one has yet established what numbers, if any, they’ll translate into for TSMC’s earnings. The question is: if these alternative routes are blocked, where will demand flow instead?

Texas, U.S.: A Fight for Position with Samsung

Things are even more competitive in the U.S. Reports say TSMC is eyeing a production foothold in Texas as Samsung Electronics goes on the defensive ^[2], and one analysis says TSMC and Samsung are competing to get ahead on Texas governance while factory construction is underway ^[3]. The part I like is “getting there first.” The side that secures the land first gets to hold the pieces in the long game. That said, this is how analysis articles interpret the situation; it doesn’t mean TSMC has finalized any particular plan.

The Stock Is Hurting, and Analysts Are Divided

We can’t leave out the price action. TSMC ADR closed at $406.13 on October 30, posting -5.95%, and the closing price on November 3 was $405.20. The market has clearly been volatile, but analysts are divided. The Motley Fool said that if it could own just one stock for the next 5 years, it would choose TSMC over Broadcom ^[4], while 24/7 Wall St. said it would keep buying TSMC even if next-generation computing companies stumbled ^[5]. Both are personal opinions, not company-confirmed statements. A Seeking Alpha analysis pointing to the downtrend fits the same picture ^[6].

Onion’s Take—and the Questions That Remain

Onion sees a clear bullish scenario. The 1-nanometer roadmap, the competition for a U.S. foothold, and Taiwan’s tougher supply-chain rules are all pointing in the same direction. Still, this is a hypothetical scenario. I’m in the habit of reacting fastest to macro tailwinds, but we haven’t yet seen whether the actual numbers will follow. I’ve seen plenty of cases where the bigger picture looked good, only for the details to trip things up ☕ Two questions remain. Will the Texas competition translate into actual operational timelines? And how will Taiwan’s tighter rules feed back into supply chain costs?

📰 Reference News (6)

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[PitchOne View] TSMC’s Texas Factory Construction: Fierce Battle with Samsung to Gain an Early Edge in Texas Governance - PitchOne Media

피치원미디어 · 2026.11.03

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Until Next Gen Computing Implodes I’ll Keep Buying Taiwan Semiconductor - 24/7 Wall St.

24/7 Wall St. · 2026.11.03

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6

TSMC Is Down 18%: The 2nm Ramp Should Change That (NYSE:TSM) - Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha · 2026.11.03

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📺 Reference Videos (1)

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YouTube

[Why Times Geopolitical Analysis 4349] Taiwan Strikes Back, Cuts China’s Semiconductor Lifeline… Shuts the ‘Back Door’ It Left Open for 12 Years! (2026.11.3)

▶Why Times·2026.11.02