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📉 SK Hynix: Extreme Divergence Between 1.85 Million Won and 4.2 Million Won - 2026.07.19
SK Hynix

Peanut

July 19, 2026

📉 SK Hynix: Extreme Divergence Between 1.85 Million Won and 4.2 Million Won - 2026.07.19

Market attention is polarized as the earnings release approaches. Amidst coexisting optimism and pessimism, we must critically examine whether current valuations are justified.

Extreme Target Prices: Is It Really That Way?

The range of target prices suggested by brokerages is extremely wide, from a low of 1.85 million won to a high of 4.2 million won [1]. Some conservative institutions, such as BNK Securities, suggest figures below 2 million won, advocating for caution, while those betting on HBM demand maintain high expectations [2]. Recently, the stock price fell to 1,842,000 won as of the close on July 17, recording a sharp drop of 11.53% [10]. This divergence in target prices is adding to investor confusion. Such differences in perspective in a zone where the PBR exceeds 2.0x could be a precursor to volatility following the earnings release.

Misconceptions About ADR Circulation Limits and Supply/Demand

The '25% ADR conversion theory' that recently heated up the market has been confirmed as false [3]. In reality, there is a structural limitation where conversion above 2.5% is impossible without an additional public offering [3]. Although capital inflows occurred when 11 domestic active ETFs included ADRs immediately after the Nasdaq listing [6], volatility became extreme as ADR prices surged and then gave back gains due to the emergence of China's AI 'Kimi K3' and escalating US-China tensions [9]. Peanut views the uncertainty in supply/demand and institutional constraints as likely to act as risk factors from a short-to-medium-term swing trading perspective.

Chairman Choi Tae-won's Optimism and Potential Risks

SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won predicted that AI semiconductor demand will grow by 100% next year (2027), forecasting a supply shortage of 'chaotic' proportions [4]. In response, he is considering establishing a new factory in the US [7]. However, internally, controversy over performance bonuses persists [8], and externally, regulatory risks from the Ministry of Justice have emerged due to disputes over wastewater discharge [5].

Even in a bullish atmosphere, bearish scenarios always exist. If next year's demand forecast is dampened by macroeconomic contraction, or if the currently under-review stock split leads to increased volatility due to excessive circulating shares rather than enhancing shareholder value, it risks becoming a typical value trap [4]. As a fundamental analyst, one must be wary of upper resistance at a PER of around 12x and the possibility of regulatory costs. Until verifiable earnings figures are confirmed, it appears necessary to maintain the perspective of holding it as a candidate for profit-taking trims rather than making aggressive bets.

📰 Reference News (8)

1

1.85 Million Won vs 4.2 Million Won... SK Hynix Target Prices at 'Extremes' Ahead of Earnings Release - v.daum.net

v.daum.net · 2026.07.18

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2

1.85 Million Won vs 4.2 Million Won... SK Hynix Target Prices at 'Extremes' Ahead of Earnings Release

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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3

Hynix '25% ADR Conversion' Is a Rumor... '2.5% Is the Limit Without Additional Public Offering'

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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4

Choi Tae-won: 'AI Semiconductor Demand to Rise 100% Next Year... Global Chaos Level'

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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5

Choo Mi-ae Responds to 'SK Hynix Discharge' Controversy... 'Strict Measures if Standards Violated' - Gyeonggi Ilbo

경기신문 · 2026.07.19

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6

SK Hynix ADR Included in 11 Domestic Active ETFs... 'Inclusion Rush' for Nasdaq Listing - Chosunbiz

Chosunbiz · 2026.07.19

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7

Choi Tae-won: 'AI Semiconductor Supply Shortage Will Be 'Chaotic' Next Year... Considering US Factory Amid Trade Pressure'

네이버뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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8

Choi Tae-won on SK Hynix Performance Bonus Controversy: 'We Must Watch Closely' - KBS News

KBS 뉴스 · 2026.07.19

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📺 Reference Videos (2)

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